Small Gains

Speculation

Sterling had a relatively good day yesterday and recovered to pre-Carney speculation territory against the US Dollar that we had seen on Tuesday. The main driver being comments from a government minister confirming that both houses of parliament would be able to examine any potential new treaties being renegotiated with the EU. This has been construed as meaning that parliament is in favour of a “softer Brexit” that keeps the UK within the single market. 

Seeing the bigger picture

Today the UK quarter 2 GDP figure was released at 09.30am BST with average forecasts set at 0.3% growth with this being arguably the most significant figure since the Brexit vote in June. The result of which may dictate the future Bank of England policy, parliamentary votes and the average UK citizen’s opinion on Brexit to date. 

Although this figure only paints a small part of the bigger picture in terms how the Brexit vote has affected the economy, the market will closely scrutinise any slip up and continue to punish the Pound if it has half a chance.

We didn’t discuss this

With the latest European Central Bank conference disclosing that not much was discussed during their recent meeting, we might be forgiven for believing that the topic of quantitative easing won’t be discussed until December. The stance subsequently released is that the programme will be continued in some form, although we are told there may be more caveats attached- this story will linger no doubt.

Tomorrow we head into a host of other quarter 3 GDP figures with France and Spain out in the morning and the big one being the USA figure out later in the day.