All eyes on the Autumn Budget

Market & Interest Rate Outlook

With UK inflation falling, there’s an increasing likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in December. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has also dropped. Other major central banks (ECB, Bank of Canada, SNB) are expected to hold rates until late Q1 or Q2 2026.

Autumn Budget Expectations

The government faces a £20–30bn gap due to commitments like ending the two-child benefit cap and reinstating the winter fuel allowance. Income tax rises appear off the table, but adjustments to thresholds, fuel duty increases, and a possible VAT reduction on energy bills are likely.

Business Impacts

A windfall tax on banks and lenders is possible. Relief measures could include VAT relief on energy costs and business rates relief for small retail and hospitality premises. No major tax simplification expected despite calls for reform.

Personal Tax & Wealth Concerns

Talk of a mansion tax on properties in Council Tax Band F and above could disproportionately impact London and the Southeast. Uncertainty remains around income tax thresholds and potential wealth taxes, creating risk for property values and investment decisions.

FX & Market Sentiment

Sterling has weakened, prompting a downward revision of GBP/USD forecasts. Dollar strength continues on the back of Fed policy and US economic resilience. Japanese yen weakness persists, nearing multi-decade highs for USD/JPY

Client Behaviour & Wealth Migration

Private clients are delaying decisions amid uncertainty, while some are moving sterling offshore. ONS revised its forecast for UK citizens leaving the country from 80k to 260k, raising concerns about wealth and talent outflows.