The first week of June belonged to the euro, which showed the other major currencies the way and took two and three quarter cents off the dollar. Sterling beat the dollar too, but only by a third of a cent.

It was not that the dollar or the US economy committed any major errors. To be sure, the downward revision to first quarter growth, from 0.2% to -0.7% (annualised) was not exactly helpful but it was what investors were expecting. A -0.4% monthly decline in factory orders was also disappointing but the rest of the week's ecostats were there or thereabouts. The euro won because it had a good week, not because the dollar had a bad one.

The outlook for the dollar this week will depend to a large extent on last Friday's figure for the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls. A net increase of less than 200k could make its life difficult.