Trump, trumps himself?
In last night’s Presidential race Donald Trump failed to confer that he will accept the result of the November 8th election. Although he did not say absolutely that this was his position this was seen as a red card event that upset GOP dignitaries as much as Democrats. The election result now looks nailed on. Unfortunately the 38/40% of Americans that support the ‘Donald’ will feel disenfranchised and angry to boot.
Left wing Clinton? Aware of the very strong support for Bernie Sanders during the Democratic nomination series back in the summer, will Clinton veer towards his welfare based economics? His support was very strong amongst younger more idealistic constituents and their draw may be too strong to resist. Although it won’t happen immediately, this could be a recession event further out. Perhaps Clinton will take a more balanced view encouraging enterprise equally!
Supply side opportunity
News that the world will double its fleet of aircraft by 2035 at a cost of $ 1.1 trillion should have everyone jumping for joy. If Theresa May has any devil in her heart she would announce expansion at Heathrow, Gatwick, Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff. Hopefully next week’s parliamentary consultation announcement will be beyond benign.
Full employment: there are now 31.81 million people employed in the UK economy representing 75% of 16 to 64 year olds, not only that but vacancies remain high at another 750,000. The official unemployment number is 4.9% but in my book this looks like full employment.
Draghi to clarify?
He might or he might not. After last month’s bold statement that tapering QE will start shortly there are signs that a climb-down might occur. If any sign of weakness is shown here the €/$ could break below 1.0950 and quickly head toward 1.08. £/€ could also benefit toward 1.13. He starts testifying at 13.30 BST.
Theresa May or May not? Has a prime ministers name ever been more open to pun?On a serious note The Prime Ministers meeting/dinner with the other EU heads of state this evening could be a market moving event. Too much sabre rattling by Mrs May or by M. Hollande peut-etre and down we go again to 1.20 £/$ and 1.10 £/€, on the other hand some diplomatic emollience on all sides could give Sterling a further leg up.