Run euro, run

Buy the bond, buy the euro
Belgium is minting coins to commemorate next Thursday's bicentenary of its liberation by a British-led multinational force in Operation Abba. France objects, claiming it will revive old quarrels. Brussels says oh no it won't. France says oh yes it will. Athens says I feel like I win when I lose.

Investors were clearly impressed by the love that flowed in Greece's direction from the G7 leaders meeting in Germany. The American president described a "sense of urgency" and the German chancellor said "time is running out". With such high-level encouragement, the market seems to fancy that Alexis Tsipras could not possibly resist the temptation to come an agreement with the country's creditors. 

What is interesting to note, though, is the way changes in the value of the euro against the US dollar relate to the changing yield on ten-year Greek government bonds. When investors feel more nervous about Greece's situation they become less keen to hold the bonds, so pushing their price down and the yield - the effective interest rate - higher. At the same time, their appetite for the euro ebbs. In other words, the market might not be impervious to the plight of Greece, it could actively be trading it.

Other than the good wishes of the G7, investors had little to guide them on Monday. With the German production and trade data already done and dusted before London opened, the day's remaining ecostats amounted no more than a tediously slow drip feed.

A decline in Euroland and investor confidence did no damage to the euro. Decently strong Canadian housing starts and building permits were of no help to the Loonie. New Zealand's -0.3% quarterly fall in manufacturing sales and Australia's improved business confidence had no lasting impact on the antipodeans. The only figures that made a difference were the low inflation numbers from China, which dampened appetite for the Aussie and the Kiwi dollars.

Monday's winners were the euro, with a cent-and-three-quarter gain, and the Norwegian krone, closely followed by the Swiss franc. The US dollar was the loser, down by three quarters of a cent. Sterling and the Canadian dollar fell by an average of -0.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies.

Euroland GDP
There are more economic statistics on today's list but not a lot more. The two to watch are Britain's trade deficit and the revised figures for Euroland's gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2015. 

The Swiss deflation data come out shortly after London opens. Britain's balance of trade seldom shifts the pound. US wholesale inventories are of no great relevance.

That leaves euro zone GDP at ten o'clock. Analysts expect the initial figure to remain unchanged, leaving quarterly growth at 0.4%. Upward or downward revisions could be expected to have matching impact on the euro. The governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be speaking tonight: he is usually good for a market-moving comment.