Fed increase still possible this year

Eurofall
Researchers have discovered that Daniel Craig's James Bond is the heaviest drinker of them all, putting away 20 units of alcohol per two-hour film. That extrapolates to 240 units per 12-hour day or 1680 a week. Doctor: "No!" For the euro on Monday the advice was to Buy Another Day.

The common currency did better than the Swedish krona yesterday, falling by only -0.8% to the krona's -1.1% but both start this morning wearing a loss of -1.6% on the week. Euroland economic statistics had nothing to do with the euro's decline, though the German producer price data did it no favours: factory gate prices have been falling - on an annualised basis - for two years. It continued to be the prospect (or the fear) of further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank that held the euro back.

Sterling came in second, a quarter of a cent behind the US dollar and accompanied by the Canadian dollar. The pound went up by just over a cent against the euro, the Aussie and the kiwi and picked up a third of a Swiss cent. It strengthened by an average of 0.5% against the other dozen most actively-traded currencies and was the top performer over the last seven days with an average gain of 0.8%.

Dennis says Yes
Dennis Lockhart, the president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, sent the US dollar higher yesterday evening when he said there is still the "live" possibility of an interest rate increase in October. Stephen Poloz did a similar job for the Loonie when he downplayed Canada's vulnerability to low oil prices.

Mr Lockhart said the decision to leave US rates unchanged this month was "a close call" and expressed his wish to begin getting them back to "normal".  As for the timing of the first move, he is "confident that the much-used phrase 'later this year' is still operative." It is unlikely that Mr Lockhart's rate-setting colleagues are all as gung-ho as he is about a rate increase. Even so, his comments sent the US dollar 1% higher against the euro.

The Bank of Canada's Stephen Poloz gave an optimistic speech about the economy. Referring to commodities, including oil, he said "We've adjusted to rising prices; we can adjust to falling ones… Canada has seen this movie before - we've managed it well in the past, and I'm confident we will continue to manage it well in the future.

UK borrowing
The only even vaguely important ecostat on today's list is for UK public sector borrowing in August, scheduled for release at half past nine. An hour and a half later the CBI reports on industrial orders.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics announced this morning that house prices had risen by 9.8% in the year to June. The equivalent official US measure comes out after lunch, as does the Conference Board's provisional consumer confidence reading.

Sterling should be unaffected by the UK data.