Oxi Oxi Oxi
Anyone got a new can?
As turkeys can fairly well be guaranteed to vote against Thanksgiving, there was - at least in the Euroland corridors of power - a degree of confidence that Greeks would say Yes to what amounted to an in/out vote on membership of the single European currency. They didn't. Now what?
The opinion polls in Greece were as wonky as those preceding the UK general election. A 50/50 prediction turned into a 61/39 walkover for the No vote against Troika-imposed "austerity". The initial market reaction in the Far East this morning was benign, with a modest one-cent mark-down for the euro as Sydney opened for business, and since then not much has happened to it. The resignation this morning of Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, took the euro a quarter of a cent higher.
As was the case last week, investors refuse to be panicked by the situation. The antipodean dollars, the Northern Scandinavian crowns and the South African rand have all had a worse start to the week. Compared with Friday's opening levels it is the Australian dollar that has suffered most, losing two and a half cents to sterling. The safe-haven Japanese yen has come out best, strengthening by nearly two yen - 1%.
Business as usual
The assumption among investors seems to be that, with the referendum out of the way, things will get back to normal in Euroland. The negotiations between Greece and its Troika of creditors will be resumed and the two sides will continue their well-rehearsed arguments ad infinitum. But what about the ECB?
It is three years since the European Central Bank president promised to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro. Thus far he has not been pressed to put his money where his mouth is but the moment has now arrived. Greece's banks are out of cash. If the ECB does not step in to top up their liquidity the government in Athens will have to fill the gap, by creating IOUs or even invoking emergency powers to print €20 notes.
Investors may, in time, decide to give the euro the spanking it has been asking for. For the moment, though, their concerns are focused on equity markets. Share prices fell throughout the Far East this morning (with the exception of China, where the government intervened to support prices) and will probably do likewise in Europe.
An interesting week
Ahead of Sunday's referendum the Greek government said a deal would be done within a day or two if the people voted No. The finance minister's prompt departure suggests the Mr Tsipras is serious in his intention to seal that agreement. But don't hold your breath.
Even with the best of intentions there remains a big gap between Greece, whose people have just voted not to sign up for more austerity, and Germany, whose people are unwilling to throw good money after bad.
But that should not stop them talking.