Greferendum

Gregime change
Rather late in the day, the IMF has conceded that Greece needs some form of debt relief and another €50bn. The observation was probably intended as a criticism of Syriza's handling of the economy but could equally well be used as ammunition by the No campaign.

It is impossible to avoid the suspicion that the latest warnings and threats from the IMF and the Eurogroup are intended to frighten the Greek electorate into choosing on Sunday to vote Yes to the austerity that would go hand-in-hand with a financial rescue package. Nobody has actually said "who will rid me of this turbulent prime minister", but there can be little doubt that a Yes result would mean the departure of Mr Tsipras and smirks in Brussels and Berlin.

The question is whether the significant number of don't-knows will heed the warnings and vote Yes, or if they will see them as yet more bullying and interference and put their cross in the όχι box. The latest opinion poll shows the result as too close to call and the last-minute decisions of the undecideds will be critical to the outcome.

Grelaxation
Investors are handling the uncertainty with typical aplomb. Euroland equity prices were mostly lower yesterday, but not by much. The euro strengthened on the day against most other major currencies, but not by much. It was steady against the safe-haven Japanese yen.

With no fresh tradable news on the subject of Greece investors had nothing to get their teeth into and were inclined to sit on their hands. The early highlight of the day was the Swedish central bank's unexpected announcement that it had cut its benchmark interest rate from -0.25% to -0.35%. As a result the krona was Thursday's biggest loser, falling by -0.9% against sterling.

After lunch the US jobs numbers were softer than forecast, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 70k fewer than expected after revisions were taken into account. The US dollar fell on the news but was eventually unchanged on the day. Sterling was on average fractionally higher but lost a third of a euro cent.

Grestraint
Whatever precautions or punts investors want to take ahead of Sunday's referendum will probably already be in place. Today's ecostat agenda will be completed by half past ten and New York will be closed for the Independence Day holiday. It should therefore be a quiet day, absent Greek bombshells.

There was a bit of a flurry early on when investors reacted badly to an unexpected -0.3% fall in Australian sales: the Aussie dropped a cent and a half. The sprinkling of services sector purchasing managers' index readings from around Europe should not matter too much but any negative surprise from the UK figure, forecast to be 57.5, would hurt the pound.

So sit back and enjoy the war of words between Athens and the Troika. And pay attention to the exit polls which come out at around 1700h on Sunday. Have a Griveting weekend.