Economic Update

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Economic Update

Two major Central Bank Meetings this week

8 minute read

16 September 2024

GBP

The Bank of England meet this Thursday, and 100% of analysts polled believe that interest rates will be held at 5% following a 0.25% cut in August.

The next key input to this decision is Wednesday with the UK inflation data release. Headline inflation in the UK is expected to remain at 2.2%, which will likely give the Bank of England time to breathe before making a further change to monetary policy while analysing a mixed basket of economic data.

Many recent data releases suggest that there is capacity for a further cut in interest rates in the UK, especially services inflation, which dropped further than expected in July. UK growth stagnated for both June and July, and wage growth continued to soften.

This picture, however, is not clear, and while we see services inflation and wage growth decline, this is from an elevated position; the UK unemployment rate remains low, and UK economic growth for the first half of 2024 was at the fastest pace in the G7.

Therefore, the Bank of England has signalled that it is taking a cautious approach to monetary policy, and GBP has strengthened over the last few weeks on this basis. Although the pound has now settled within new trading ranges, when compared with previous trading ranges versus the dollar and the euro this year, the pound is doing well.

EUR

The European Central Bank met last week and cut interest rates by 0.25%, bringing the headline rate down to 3.5%. This move was widely anticipated in markets due to lukewarm economic growth and lower rates of inflation.

Commentary on EU economic growth seems to have turned gloomy as investors assess the prolonged trend of minimal economic expansion, with recent GDP figures showing just a 0.2% expansion in the economy in the second quarter of 2024 and Germany (the EU's enginehouse economy) contracting by 0.1%.

The expectation is for the ECB to continue to analyse the situation closely, and Lagarde has reiterated that future policy will be decided meeting by meeting, depending on the data. One further rate cut this year is expected by markets, likely in December, with the headline rate of interest expected to sit at 2% by mid-2025.

For now, the euro appears to have stabilised versus the dollar and the pound, but if the outlook worsens, we could see further weakness filter through.

USD

The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision has been hotly anticipated since last month's meeting, and markets have now priced in their expectation that the Federal Reserve will begin a cycle of interest rate reductions on Wednesday, 18th September.

However, news this morning has been dominated by an apparent second assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, a stark reminder of the political temperature in the US, which is bubbling over ahead of the November vote. 

Polls suggest that Vice-President Kamala Harris edged in front of Trump following last week's televised debate. However, the margins remain incredibly tight between the two camps and could come down to the swing in votes from less than 1% of the US electorate. This is made up of the 5% of undecided voters from seven key states.

With only seven weeks from polling day, the uncertainty seems to be tipping into exchange rates, with some USD weakness to end last week and a move back towards the higher end of the recent range for the pound. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the vote could continue to impact financial markets.

The rhetoric around monetary policy from the Fed has changed from 'Will they cut interest rates?' to 'How much will interest rates change?' following a mixed bag of data releases from the States, which still leave the conclusion of Wednesday's meeting unclear. 

It appears that the US economy has the capacity for a cut in interest rates, designed to stimulate economic activity, now that inflation has fallen back to 2.5% (the lowest since February 2021). Without any movement in the interest rates, the Fed could risk economic stagnation in the US as the larger economies around the globe begin to show a lack of growth potential over the coming months.  

However, the Federal Reserve may tread cautiously to prevent spooking markets and favour a 0.25% cut over a 0.50% cut, given that recent labour market data failed to paint a clear picture.

While the jobs market appears robust overall, with many US businesses still looking for employees and the current cost of living continuing to reduce consumer spending power, some higher profile layoffs in manufacturing (John Deere and Whirlpool, to name two) leave an undercurrent of concern over capacity for economic stimulus, and could mean the Fed choose to balance their move carefully.

Commentary from the Fed's Chair, Jerome Powell, following the meeting, will be key, and many will be looking forward to November's meeting and confirmation that we are expecting up to a 100-basis point cut between now and the end of the year.

The FOMC's Summary of Economic Predictions is also released on Wednesday and will track policymakers' views on growth, inflation, employment, and the relative level of expected interest rate cuts, which could further impact market volatility. This report is published four times a year.

This commentary does not constitute financial advice. All rates are sourced from Bloomberg and forecasts are taken from Forex Factory

 

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