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Deal or no deal

There was some reprieve for the pound as eyes return to Parliament and renewed attempts to avoid a no deal Brexit. Labour has put forward a cross-party motion to pass control of the Parliamentary timetable over to MPs on June 25th, a move that has previously been used to pursue an extension of Brexit.

Frontrunner Boris Jonson is set to launch his leadership campaign today, with the flagship policy delivering a deal or no deal Brexit by 31st October at the latest. The former Mayor of London warned his fellow Conservatives of the threat that Labour and a General Election could pose to the party if the deadline isn’t met. 

Volatility for the pound could be on the horizon with tomorrow’s RICS House Price Balance data, with an expected weakening of house prices able to discourage investors.

Trade troubles continue

The trade wars of the USA, against China and Mexico, again created a sense of caution across all markets. Following his threat to use tariffs on Chinese goods in the event that President Xi refuses to meet him at the G20 Summit later this month, President Trump went on to reiterate that he had no interest in trade negotiations unless Beijing were to agree to several ‘major points’.

CPI data will be released later today, with US retail sales set for print tomorrow, both of which will go a long way to providing the backdrop to a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

Draghi speaks

The euro has enjoyed further gains against the dollar this week, building to an 11-week high, on the back of the dollar suffering from lingering tension between the US and China, and the US and Mexico. This offers a stark contrast to President Trump’s claims that the euro is devalued against the US dollar.

The market is waiting on investors to react to ECH President Draghi’s speech this morning, where he expressed concern over the vulnerability of Central Europe ‘to shocks to international trade and financial conditions’. Indeed, many are still on the lookout for signs of a further interest rates cut.  

The Antipodeans sunk further this week following Trump’s tariff threats, however employment data from Australia are also expected tomorrow, with the NAB forecasting a strong showing attributed to the rise in temporary workers for the federal election. Other key news to monitor includes RBA Assistance Governor Kent’s speech and reaction to Westpac’s Consumer Sentiment. 

GBP: Back to business as usual for Brexit

GBP: Back to business as usual for Brexit

EUR: Draghi warns euro despite week’s gains

EUR: Draghi warns euro despite week’s gains

USD: Stern showing from Trump on trade

USD: Stern showing from Trump on trade

AUD: Awaits data following trade war slump

AUD: Awaits data following trade war slump

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