Jobs, manufacturers and elections
North American payrolls surge
Investors chipped in to pay Michelle Young's £11.2m legal costs in return for a portion of anything she might win over and above the £26m already awarded by the divorce courts. Two years on they are still down by £11.2m, unlike the investors who backed a strong US employment number on Friday.
Analysts had forecast a 226k rise for US nonfarm payrolls for May. The actual increase was 280k and a further 22k jobs were added to the previous two months' data. The total was therefore 76k more than investors had expected; an overshoot of 57%. The market's reaction was swift and dramatic, with the dollar strengthening by an instant cent against sterling and by more than that against the euro.
The Canadian dollar was helped by the US number and helped even more by its own employment data, which came out at the same time and showed employment rising by 59k, six times as many as predicted. So the Loonie was Friday's top performer, strengthening by 1% against sterling and by a fifth of a US cent.
Krone and rand retreat
There was not a whole lot else occurring on Friday. The Norwegian krone was the weakest of the bunch, falling by -1.7% and the South African rand did almost as badly with a -1.2% drop.
The North American dollars' gain was the rand's loss. It fell to an all-time low against the pound and a 13-year low against the US dollar after the jobs data came out. Other emerging-market currencies suffered too, the logic being that the strong data increased the likelihood of higher US rates this year and threatened the flow of outward investment.
The krone also felt the heat of the American data. It had already been hurt by earlier news that Norwegian manufacturing output unexpectedly fell by -2.9% in April. Another currency at all-time lows was the Turkish lira, which gapped lower this morning when it became clear that President Erdoğan's AK party had lost its parliamentary majority at the weekend. It is down by -4% from Friday's opening level.
Don't hold your breath
Today's FX market will feel anticlimactic after Friday's goings-on. The ecostat agenda is extremely brief and Greece has no deadlines to miss.
In the Far East this morning Japan upwardly revised first quarter economic growth from 0.6% to 1.0% and China revealed a third month of decline for exports and a seventh monthly fall for imports. Ahead of London's opening Germany announced a wider trade surplus as exports increased and imports fell. Berlin also reported a respectable 1.4% monthly rise in industrial production.
The only other statistic this morning is the Sentix index of Euroland investor confidence. After lunch come the figures for Canadian housing starts and building permits and US labour market conditions. Chinese inflation comes out tonight, along with NZ manufacturing sales, British retail sales (the BRC monitor), Australian mortgage lending, Australian business confidence and Japanese consumer confidence.