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What happened at the BoE and ECB meetings today?

2 minute read
Both the Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) have raised interest rates by 50bps this afternoon, taking their key policy rates to 4% and 2.5% respectively, in moves which had been widely expected by financial markets.

 

Here's look at the other key takeaways from today's announcements:

Bank of England

• There was a 7–2 split amongst the 9-member MPC, with one member (Mann) reducing her vote from 75bps to 50bps during the meeting.
• Markets perceived the announcement from the BoE as a ‘dovish hike’, with future rate hikes from the BoE clearly questionable, given the broad declines in UK economic activity and a particularly weak outlook
• BoE governor Andrew Bailey highlighted lower headline UK inflation during his post-meeting conference, with the inflation outlook softening amongst the BoE’s updated forecasts. The BoE now expects UK inflation to fall to 3.92% by the end of this year, which is down from its previous forecast of 5.2% (in November)

European Central Bank

• The ECB has now raised Euro area rates by 3% since last July
• The ECB said that it intend to hike Euro area rates by another 50bps in March, despite Lagarde suggesting that the risks to the inflation outlook are also now more balanced.
• The ECB’s hawkish stance (on future rate hikes) should help to keep the single currency elevated for the time being.

And what does that mean for the currency markets?

• EUR/USD therefore remains fairly close to the 1.1000 recent high in the immediate aftermath, driven in-part by those rate dynamics between the ECB and the Fed (who yesterday slowed the pace of US rate hikes to 25bps)
• On the other hand, GBP/USD briefly rallied to 1.2400 in the initial moments after the BoE, but has since slipped back to test support below 1.2300 and remains subdued.
• GBP/EUR has also moved below 1.1250, reflecting the broadly weaker pound, and that robust single currency.

 

GBP/EUR currency chart

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