Daily Market Pulse
JOLTS Data Weakens USD, Markets Remain Cautious
3 minute readThe USD rose 0.15% yesterday, capping its fifth consecutive daily gain. However, equities and commodities declined. Similar to the August market crash, concerns about growth and potential Fed rate cuts caused risk assets to plummet. Yesterday's US manufacturing activity data showed contraction for the fifth straight month, with weaker new orders and rising prices for components.
Today, the USD started weaker against most G10 currencies, anticipating the JOLTS employment data at 10 AM. The data significantly missed expectations, including a downward revision of the previous reading. The report revealed increasing layoffs, unemployment, and a decline in job openings, suggesting that the labor market might be cooling more rapidly than anticipated. Following the JOLTS release, the USD is over 0.4% lower today.
EUR/USD fell 0.25% yesterday but is up 0.4% today, trading about 0.35% lower than last week. Final services and composite PMI readings for August missed estimates, rising modestly from the flash readings. ECB member Nagel cautioned against premature optimism, noting that the goal of price stability had not yet been achieved. He urged caution due to ongoing risks from strong wage growth and sticky services prices. We will hear from the ECB's Villeroy today. Retail sales data is scheduled for tomorrow, and the final Q2 eurozone growth reading will be released on Friday.
GBP/USD closed 0.2% lower yesterday but is 0.4% higher today, trading about 0.45% lower than last week. Final services and composite PMI readings for August exceeded expectations, moving further into expansionary territory. Tuesday's employment data is a key focus for the BOE ahead of their September 19th rate decision, which has a 25% implied probability of an easing move.
USD/CAD rose 0.4% yesterday but is 0.35% lower today following the BOC rate decision, trading approximately 0.45% higher than last week. Yesterday's manufacturing PMI reading exceeded expectations, rising strongly from the previous level to just below an expansionary reading. The BOC lowered its policy rate as widely expected, with BOC Governor Macklem reiterating the expectation for further cuts. He stated that the decision to lower rates was based on the continued easing of headline and core inflation, as well as the need to support economic growth and absorb slack in the economy.
USD/JPY fell 1% yesterday as the Yen led gains in the G10 space after BOJ Governor Ueda suggested that the BOJ would continue to raise its policy rate if growth and prices evolve as expected. Risk aversion also drove haven demand for the Yen yesterday, and the pair is another 1% lower today following the JOLTS data release. The next BOJ rate decision is scheduled for September 20th.