Phase one of trade agreement


With phase 1 of a US-China trade deal now apparently on the books, the markets will await when the deal will be signed. Expectation is that it will take a few weeks to put the deal in writing and it is hoped that the signing will occur at the APEC Chile summit that will be held on November 16-17. The deal agreed on Friday adds a huge amount of agricultural purchases from US farmers by China. It also delays added tariffs the US was supposed to put into play on October 15. US equity markets reacted positively after the deal agreement was announced. US Michigan Consumer release on Friday gave the USD a boost as the number was 96.0, better than the 92.0 expected. With the US banks closed for the Columbus Day holiday, liquidity could play a major factor today.


EUR/USD trading lower this morning as trade agreement between US and China as well as positive US data weigh on the EUR. There was much talk of progress and common ground after UK PM Boris Johnson met Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar on Thursday. European Council President Donald Tusk stated he has received “promising signals” from Varadkar on Brexit. 


According to a statement issued by the European Commission, “constructive technical-level talks” occurred over the weekend. These talks will continue on Monday and EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier will brief the General Affairs Council on Tuesday. UK PM Johnson also commented that a deal was possible, but that a significant amount of work was still needed. He also said Great Britain must be prepared to leave the EU without a deal on October 31. 


USD/JPY traded at a 2.5 month high overnight as progress in the trade talks, as well as Brexit negotiations had traders easing out of safe-haven purchases. Japan was closed overnight for it’s own holiday, so expect quiet trading today. Needless to say, if the trade negotiations between the US and China fall apart, there will be a rush to safe haven buying.


Oil prices spiked 3% higher last week after an Iranian oil tanker was engulfed in flames from a suspected missile attack off the coastal city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. Canadian Job numbers again added another 54,000 jobs in September lowering the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent from 5.7 percent, with the most notable gains were in full-time work according to the Statistics Canada release.


According to reports issued overnight, China’s September trade data showed imports and exports contracting deeply in September. Imports dropped -8.5% year on year against an expected -5.2% which shows weak domestic demand and exports also contracted -3.2% year on year versus an expected -3.0%.

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