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Joe Biden projected to be the 46th President of the United States

USD

The Democratic nominee Joe Biden has been projected to be the winner of the U.S presidential elections, despite inevitable legal challenges to follow. With the elections mostly out of the way, the focus will shift back to the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and whether the White House and Congress will reach a final agreement for another stimulus package. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (11/10): IHS Markit US Business Outlook | Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) Job Openings (Sep) | Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) economic optimism (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (11/11): The U.S market will be closed
  • On Thursday (11/12): Consumer Price Index (Oct) | Jobless claims (7-Nov) | U.S monthly budget statement (Oct)

EUR

The Covid-19 pandemic shows no signs of slowing down, with several European countries declaring a state of emergency. Belgium, which has suffered the most deaths per capita since the pandemic began, reached record intensive-care bed occupancy, and France reported pressure on hospitals. In Spain, most of the regional administrations have announced border closures, nighttime curfews, and partial lockdowns. Thus, with U.S elections over (or apparently over), markets may return to emphasizing the Covid-19 effect on the global economic sentiment. Furthermore, Industrial production and trade data are the highlights in the eurozone. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (11/10): Germany ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Nov) | France and Italy industrial output (Sep)
  • On Thursday (11/12): Eurozone Industrial Production (Sep)
  • On Friday (11/13): Eurozone Employment Change (Prelim)| Eurozone GDP (Q3)

GBP

Similar to other European countries, new records in Covid-19 cases across the UK were registered and England started its new lockdown last Thursday, depressing the prospect for a recovery in the coming months. In the upcoming week, first estimates of Q3 GDP growth will be released on Wednesday, as well as detailed data related to industry and trade. According to the market’s expectations, the magnitude of the UK rebound is expected to be in the region of 16% (quarter-on-quarter) at a nonannualized rate following a 20% contraction in Q2. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (11/09): BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (11/10): IHS Markit UK Business Outlook | Unemployment Rate (Sep)
  • On Wednesday (11/11): GDP (Q3)
  • On Thursday (11/12): Manufacturing Production (Sep)

JPY

Earlier this morning, the monthly Reuters Tankan survey showed that the business sentiment of Japanese manufacturers and service firms was the least pessimistic in nine months during November. However, Machinery Orders and PPI on Wednesday are likely to show that Japan’s domestic outlook remains in recession and that Japan is grappling with deflation again. The main focus will be on GDP on Friday, where it is expected to show an improvement to -3.5% (year-on-year) but still heavily weighted and located in negative territory. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (11/10): IHS Markit Japan Business Outlook | Economy Watchers Current Index (Oct)
  • On Wednesday (11/11): Core Machinery Orders (Sep) | Product Price Index (Oct)
  • On Sunday (11/15): GDP (Q3)

CAD

It’s a quiet week ahead on the economic calendar, with market participants digesting the latest jobs report, which showed a slowdown in the job-creation pace, albeit signaling that the economic recovery is still on track. The Canadian unemployment rate declined to 8.9%, with the economy adding 83,600 jobs. On Thursday, Bank of Canada (BoC) Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will deliver her final scheduled speech before she leaves on December 9th after the next BoC policy meeting. House starts figures for October will be released today, which is likely to have a low or muted impact on USD/CAD. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (11/09): Housing Starts
  • On Wednesday (11/11): Canadian Market will be closed
  • On Thursday (11/12): Carolyn A. Wilkins, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak virtually to the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy Exploring Life Post-COVID

MXN

If Biden is declared the US President, as a Democrat, investors might continue to price this as a positive prospect for the Mexican economy, where Biden’s Foreign policy would soften Mexico-U.S relations. Mexico’s Central Bank will deliver a policy decision on Thursday. Analysts expect no change to the overnight rate of 4.25%, since GDP growth recently hit 12% (QoQ) in Q3, however, in contrast, inflation annual rate of 4.0% lies at the top of the 3% (+/-1%) target range, which could lead policy markets to hold further cuts.

  • On Monday (11/09): Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Oct)
  • On Wednesday (11/11): Industrial Production (Sep)
  • On Thursday (11/12): Interest Rate Decision (Nov)

CNY

After PMIs data indicated a solid start for output in Q4, backed up by the fastest upturn in overall sales for nearly a decade, investors, this week, will be looking forward to monthly data, including China’s credit and foreign investment figures, on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. As to China’s credit, new yuan loans and total financing will show updates on credit growth and consequently will mean whether remains room for People’s Bank of China to support the Chinese economy with more stimulus measures. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (11/09): Consumer Price Index (Oct) | Product Price Index (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (11/10): IHS Markit China Business Outlook
  • On Wednesday (11/11): New yuan loans (Oct) | Total social financing (Oct)
  • On Thursday (11/12): Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (Oct)
  • On Sunday (11/15): Industrial Production (Oct) | Retail Sales (Oct)

BRL

Robust growth continued to be seen in Brazil with PMIs Services and Manufacturing indicators highlighting in October the strongest monthly improvement in the health of the sector since data collection started in February 2006. On the other hand, Brazilian inflation in October rose to its highest level for that month since 2002, figures showed on Friday, driven by rising food and transport costs and lifting annual inflation to within sight of the central bank's year-end target. In the upcoming week, Covid-19 infection rates and political turmoil will inevitably be a big steer on the markets as a guide to future economic growth projections. Key figures coming up: 

  • On Tuesday (11/10): IHS Markit Brazil Business Outlook  
  • On Wednesday (11/11): Retail Sales (Sep)
  • On Friday (11/13): IBC-Br Economic Activity (Sep)

Quick Insights

USD: The focus will shift back to the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

USD: The focus will shift back to the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

EUR: The Covid-19 pandemic shows no signs of slowing down

EUR: The Covid-19 pandemic shows no signs of slowing down

GBP: First estimates of Q3 GDP growth will be released on Wednesday

GBP: First estimates of Q3 GDP growth will be released on Wednesday

JPY: The main focus will be on Q3 GDP on Friday

JPY: The main focus will be on Q3 GDP on Friday

CAD: BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will deliver her final scheduled speech

CAD: BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins will deliver her final scheduled speech

MXN: Biden’s Foreign policy would soften Mexico-U.S relations

MXN: Biden’s Foreign policy would soften Mexico-U.S relations

CNY: New yuan loans and total financing will show updates on credit growth

CNY: New yuan loans and total financing will show updates on credit growth

BRL: Robust growth continued to be seen in Brazil

BRL: Robust growth continued to be seen in Brazil

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