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U.S Labor market conditions will be assessed

USD

Although it was a short week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, equity markets around the world reached new all-time highs. At the same time, oil prices gained almost 6% and U.S. long bond yields moved higher, all boosted by news from Covid-19 vaccine developments and its impact on the real economy. This week, the focus will be on labor market conditions with the ADP Job Report, Jobless Claims, and Nonfarm payrolls all due out. Furthermore, the formal transition process for the incoming Joe Biden administration is set to continue through this week. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): Pending home sales (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): ISM manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (12/02): Fed Chair Powell’s testimony for House of Rep | ADP job report (Nov) | Fed Beige Book
  • On Thursday (12/03):  Jobless claims (28-Nov)
  • On Friday (12/04): Nonfarm payrolls, jobless rate, earnings (Nov) | Exports, imports, trade balance, factory orders (Oct)

EUR

Last week, the European PMI data fell sharply amid new lockdowns to curb the second wave of Covid-19 infections. However, ongoing expansion in manufacturing was registered, especially in Germany. The upward trend in Germany’s industrial base is expected to be corroborated by factory orders on Friday. Elsewhere, the inflation rate for November, which comes out on Tuesday, will be key to watch as it will be the last important figure to come out ahead of the European Central Bank's December meeting. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): Germany Consumer Price Index (Prelim, Nov)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): Germany unemployment rate and change (Nov) | Euro area inflation (Flash, Nov)
  • On Wednesday (12/02): Euro area jobless rate (Oct) | Euro area ECB non-monetary policy meeting
  • On Friday (12/04): Germany Factory Orders (Oct)

GBP

November’s flash U.K. PMIs showed a more modest decline than expected in the service sector, leading to a noticeable loss of momentum in the face of widespread Covid19-related restrictions on activity. Brexit remains a key driver in this upcoming week as talks resumed on the weekend and time is rapidly running out. Unless there are any downward revisions, the PMIs are likely to have a muted impact on the Sterling. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): Bank of England (BoE) Consumer Credit | Mortgage (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): BoE Bank's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) meeting | Manufacturing PMI
  • On Wednesday (12/02): BoE FPC Meeting Minutes 
  • On Thursday (12/03): Services PMI
  • On Friday (12/04): Construction PMI

JPY

The pair USD/JPY followed a clear overall downtrend tunnel in the past week - a strength in Japanese yen not seen since late 2016 – after Japan’s GDP annualized growth rate in Q3 came in stronger than expected and exports bounced back to just below levels not seen since before the pandemic. Japan’s October manufacturing data on Tuesday will shape expectations for their GDP performance in Q4. However, unless there is a sharp deviation from preliminary figures, markets are likely to brush aside the numbers. Key figures coming:

  • On Sunday (11/29): Industrial Production (Oct) | Retail Sales (Oct)
  • On Monday (11/30): Japan jobless rate (Oct) | Capital spending (Q3)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): au Jibun Bank/IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (Final, Nov)
  • On Thursday (12/03): au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Final, Nov)

CAD

The week starts with Canada’s Finance Minister delivering a long-awaited update on the state of federal finances on Monday. To a certain extent, this will be a stay-tuned pledge of partial measures and tentative forward fiscal guidance. The focus will then shift to Q3 Gross Domestic Product on Tuesday. According to analysts, Canada’s third-quarter GDP is expected to show a robust rebound in excess between 45% and 48% annualized growth. More than three-quarters of the GDP decline in the spring had been recouped by September. Elsewhere, the employment figures due out on Friday are eagerly awaited and are expected to have the greatest impact by the end of the week. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): Building Permits (Oct) | Budget Balance (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): GDP (Q3) | RBC Manufacturing PMI
  • On Friday (12/04): Employment, Unemployment Rate (Nov)

MXN

In Mexico, last Q3 GDP data showed that Mexico’s economy bounced back in the third quarter, driven by a strong recovery in secondary activities with GDP growing 12.1% from the previous Q2 period. A warmer U.S. demand has been helping Mexico rack up large trade surpluses as exports are picking up speed, especially in the manufacturing industry. Bank credit and fiscal balance lead off a relatively quiet week of secondary data releases ahead of both H2-November and the whole month’s inflation prints (Dec. 9) the following week. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): Fiscal Balance (Oct) | Net Outstanding Loans (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • On Friday (12/04): Consumer Confidence

CNY

A slew of China PMIs will be eagerly awaited to gauge the resilience of the Chinese economic recovery during November and they are likely to set the tone for regional and global markets. The China-Australia trade relationship should be on the radar as well after trade tensions escalated last week. Recent developments have resulted in mounting concerns about the economic implications to the Australian economy from a prolonged disruption of Australian exports to China. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI (Nov)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): Caixin/IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • On Thursday (12/03): Caixin/IHS Markit Services PMI (Nov)

BRL

Having closed the second round of mayoral elections this Sunday (29) in 57 cities, including São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the Covid-19 pandemic returns to the domestic agenda. After a decline of new cases in September, there has been a spike back up to an incidence rate of around 40k new infections reported daily. On the economic front, Brazilian inflation is still raising concerns, driven by rising food and transport costs and lifting annual inflation to within sight of the central bank's year-end target. The political scenario continues to be mixed. The president is still avoiding any major conflict or harsh declarations that could generate noise. On the other hand, Economy Minister Paulo Guedes is making unfulfilled promises and accumulating disagreements. The last episode involved central bank president Roberto Campos Neto, putting in doubt the stability of the relationship between the two largest economic representatives in the country. Key figures coming:

  • On Monday (11/30): Debt-to-GDP ratio (Oct) | Budge Balance (Oct)
  • On Tuesday (12/01): Trade Balance (Nov) | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (12/02): Industrial Output (Oct) | Foreign Exchange Flows | IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (Nov)
  • On Thursday (12/03): GDP (IBGE) (Q3) | Markit Composite and Services PMI (Nov) 

Quick Insights

USD: It is another busy week on the economic data front

USD: It is another busy week on the economic data front

EUR: The upward trend in Germany’s industrial base is expected to be corroborated by factory orders on Friday

EUR: The upward trend in Germany’s industrial base is expected to be corroborated by factory orders on Friday

GBP: Brexit remains a key driver in this upcoming week

GBP: Brexit remains a key driver in this upcoming week

JPY: The pair USD/JPY followed a clear overall downtrend tunnel in the past week

JPY: The pair USD/JPY followed a clear overall downtrend tunnel in the past week

CAD: The week starts with Canada’s Finance Minister delivering a long-awaited update on the state of federal finances

CAD: The week starts with Canada’s Finance Minister delivering a long-awaited update on the state of federal finances

MXN: A warmer U.S. demand has been helping Mexico rack up large trade surpluses

MXN: A warmer U.S. demand has been helping Mexico rack up large trade surpluses

CNY: China-Australia trade relationship should be on the radar as well after trade tensions escalated last week

CNY: China-Australia trade relationship should be on the radar as well after trade tensions escalated last week

BRL: The political scenario continues to be mixed

BRL: The political scenario continues to be mixed

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