Daily Market Pulse

USD Firm, Cautious Tone Ahead of Data End of Week
2 minute readThe Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The report will provide data on the change in the number of job openings in June, as well as layoffs and quits. JOLTS data is closely watched by market participants and Fed policymakers because it offers valuable insights into labor market supply and demand dynamics, a key factor influencing wages and inflation.
Inflation in Germany, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 2.3% year-over-year in July from 2.2% in June. This reading exceeded market expectations of 2.2%. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.3% following a 0.1% rise in June.
EUR/USD is lower today due to a weaker-than-expected GDP print from Germany. The primary driver for the Euro this week will be the preliminary Eurozone HICP for July, to be released on Wednesday. The inflation data will indicate whether current market speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its key interest rates two more times this year is justified. The ECB initiated its policy easing cycle in June but did not cut rates in July due to concerns about renewed price pressures from an overly aggressive stance. Annual headline and core HICP, which excludes volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, are estimated to have slowed to 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively.
GBP/USD is slightly lower at the session's start as a cautious market mood is supporting the USD. GBP/USD began the week on a weak footing as the U.S. Dollar benefited from risk aversion. However, investors appear hesitant to commit to a directional move in the pair ahead of the Federal Reserve and Bank of England's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
USD/CAD is flat today, but the CAD is struggling against significant negative sentiment. This sentiment reflects the Bank of Canada's easing bias, slower growth compared to the U.S., and potential investor concerns about another Trump presidency and tariffs on Canadian exports.