As we wrap up the month, markets are navigating a complex mix of macroeconomic data, corporate earnings, and geopolitical headlines—all while managing month-end flows that may cloud broader directional trends.

Market snapshot

- USD/CAD: Up 0.1%

- EUR/USD: Down 0.1%

- GBP/USD: Down 0.34%

The U.S. dollar is modestly stronger across the board this morning, but the move is measured as investors assess a wave of economic indicators and major tech earnings.

Key drivers

U.S. data: Stagflation risk emerging?

1. ADP employment data came in weaker than expected, suggesting softness in labor demand.

2. In contrast, inflation metrics were hotter:
  - GDP Price Index rose 3.7%
  - Core PCE Price Index rose 3.5%
  (vs. consensus of 3.1% in both cases)

3. This combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation is reviving concerns about the dreaded “stagflation” scenario, placing the Federal Reserve in a difficult policy bind.

Tech earnings in focus

1. A huge week for U.S. mega-cap tech earnings:

 - Meta report after today’s close

 - Apple and Amazon follow later in the week

2. Investors are watching closely for any signs that tariffs or global trade disruptions are weighing on forward guidance or margins, especially for companies with exposure to China and Europe.

Tariff developments

President Trump approved additional tariff relief for U.S. automakers, attempting to offset the pressure of stacked 25% vehicle and parts tariffs.

While these moves offer temporary breathing room, they also highlight the broader instability in global trade flows.

European Data & Currency Dynamics

Eurozone Q1 GDP grew 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of expansion and beating expectations.

Still, the euro is modestly lower this morning, likely due to broader U.S. dollar strength.

Sterling is also lower, but remains near its strongest levels since November 2023, reflecting resilience amid global volatility.

Volkswagen Warning

Volkswagen issued a downbeat outlook, citing a slowing demand environment as a result of deteriorating global trade conditions.

This may foreshadow broader weakness in industrial and export-heavy sectors moving into Q2.

Looking Ahead

Month-end flows may continue to create noise in currency markets, potentially masking deeper trends.

Markets will remain sensitive to inflation commentary, Fed guidance, and earnings surprises as traders look for clarity in a turbulent environment.

Conclusion

The final trading day of April brings a complicated mix of signals—with signs of inflation, sluggish growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and critical earnings all colliding. The U.S. dollar opens stronger, but this could shift quickly as macro and micro data continue to roll in.