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Pandemic chaos in India & Economic Calendar

USD

The U.S. dollar advanced 0.6% against its major peers in the past week, with the benchmark 10-year yield remaining at the 1.5%-1.6% range for several days and capping further U.S. dollar strength. In the U.S. it is a busy week ahead, from durable orders to consumer confidence, to GDP and personal consumption, market participants are expecting solid readings in economic indicators. Nonetheless, the Fed/FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be the week’s highlight, although the Fed will not change rates or alter its language in the official announcement, given that it will not introduce new economic and policy forecasts. Elsewhere, in the background, geopolitical risk persists, particularly in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between China and Taiwan. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (04/26): Core Durable Goods Orders (Mar)
  • On Tuesday (04/27): House Price Index (Feb) | API Crude Oil Stock (Weekly) | CB Consumer Confidence (Apr)       
  • On Wednesday (04/28):  Goods Trade Balance (Mar) | Crude Oil Inventories | Fed Interest Rate Decision
  • On Thursday (04/29): Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly) | GDP (Q1) | Pending Home Sales (Mar)
  • On Friday (04/30): Personal Income (Mar) | Personal Spending (Mar)

EUR

Last week, the common currency remained trading within its bullish channel built at the beginning of April, appreciating 1% against the greenback. German bonds creeping higher and vaccinations on track to beat the rollout goal all provided a crucial support to the EUR. The upcoming week kicks off with the German IFO institute's business confidence index, due out on Monday, and likely to drive greater attention. The latest German unemployment figures which are scheduled for release on Thursday will bring the German economy back in focus. Wrapping the week up, the Eurozone's largest economies will be publishing their preliminary estimates of Q1 GDP on Friday. Forecasts suggest that the European Union entered a double-dip recession in Q1, as Covid-19 lockdowns continued to hammer the service sector. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (04/26): German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr)
  • On Tuesday (04/27): EZ Business Climate (Apr)
  • On Wednesday (04/28):  GfK German Consumer Climate (May)
  • On Thursday (04/29): German Unemployment Rate (Apr) | EZ Consumer Inflation Expectation (Apr) | German Consumer Price Index (Apr)
  • On Friday (04/30): EZ Consumer Price Index (Apr) | EZ GDP (Q1)

GBP

Having appreciated over 1% against the greenback last Monday, the Pound was not able to consolidate the gain and lost some ground at the end of the week. Nonetheless, it is unclear if there were macro fundamentals behind this decline, although there are renewed concerns about new Covid-19 cases across the world, particularly in India, with the country reporting a million new cases in three days. Looking ahead, it is a quiet week on the economic calendar. CBI Distributive Trades and BRC Shop Price Index are due on Tuesday. The nationwide house prices report for April is scheduled to be released on Thursday. However, any of those reports may provide the Pound with directions. A lack of relevant figures will leave the GBP exposed to the Covid-19 situation and market risk sentiment. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (04/27): CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr) | BRC Shop Price Index (Apr)
  • On Thursday (04/29): Nationwide HPI (Apr)

JPY

It has been a positive month for the Japanese Yen, which has appreciated 2.6% against the greenback so far. The recent U.S. yield weakening is the main reason behind the JPY’s leap. Also, renewed fears around armed conflicts across the globe led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, including the JPY. Looking ahead, it is a busy week, the key events to be watched are the Bank of Japan's policy meeting and quarterly outlook report, both scheduled for later today. On that note, a hawkish outlook is seen as positive or bullish for the JPY, conversely, a dovish view is seen as negative or bearish for the JPY. Major economic data to follow include Retail Sales (Tue), Tokyo Consumer Price Index (Thu), and Industrial production figures (Thu). Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (04/26): BoJ Interest Rate Decision | BoJ Outlook Report | Coincident Indicator (Apr)     
  • On Tuesday (04/27): BoJ Core Consumer Producer Index (Apr) | Retail Sales (Mar) | BoJ Press Conference 
  • On Thursday (04/29):  Holiday - Showa Day | Jobs/applications ratio (Mar) | Tokyo Consumer Price Index (Apr) | Industrial Production (Mar) | Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
  • On Friday (04/30): Household Confidence (Apr)

CAD

In Canada, the Loonie continued to receive tailwinds from a Bank of Canada’s hawkish tone. Last week the central bank left interest rates unchanged but said it would trim its weekly net bond purchases from C$4 billion ($3.2 billion) to C$3 billion effective today. Looking ahead, markets look for a solid gain in February’s retail sales on Wednesday. At the end of the week, February GDP data and Price Index figures will also have an influence. The GDP number is likely to bring a solid growth rate in February as the housing market outperformed and retailing also benefited from restrictions being relaxed during the month. Key figures coming up:

  • On Wednesday (04/28): Retail Sales (Feb)
  • On Thursday (04/29): Payroll Employment, Earnings & Hrs (Weekly)
  • On Friday (04/30): GDP (Feb) | Budget Balance (Feb) | Raw Materials Price Index (Mar) | Industrial Product Price Index (Mar)

MXN

In Mexico, the Mexican Peso recouped all of its losses against the U.S. dollar this year, although the currency traded sideways most of the week. Last week also brought higher inflation numbers, which gave extra fuel for the Central Bank to keep the interest rate at 4% for an indeterminate time, favoring the Peso. Looking ahead, higher prices with slow economic recovery amid surging new virus cases is a dangerous combination and may start to weigh on the MXN. On the economic calendar, the Economic Activity report for February is due on Monday and is likely to flag a recovery while lingering below pre-pandemic levels. However, wrapping the week up, preliminary first-quarter gross domestic product figures on Friday will probably show a year-over-year decline as the recovery continues with less momentum. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (04/26): Economic Activity (Feb)
  • On Tuesday (04/27): Trade Balance (Mar)
  • On Friday (04/30): GDP (Mar)

CNY

Over the last two weeks, the Chinese yuan has been printing strong gains against the U.S. dollar led by solid domestic economic data, as well as favorable tailwinds from abroad. Although it is a quiet week ahead, results from the key manufacturing PMI survey, scheduled for release on Thursday, could easily move markets. Before that, profit reports at China’s industrial firms are scheduled for today and should have a market impact. China’s industrial sector has seen a strong rebound from the shock of the Covid-19 pandemic. Away from the economic calendar, geopolitics developments will continue to be monitored, including U.S.-China, U.S-Russia relations, as well as conflicts in Iran. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (04/26): Chinese Industrial Profit (Mar)
  • On Thursday (04/29): Composite & Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

BRL

Last week was marked by the end of the 2021 Federal Budget’s deadlock after President Bolsonaro finally sanctioned it. The approval of the Budget was positive for the market because the ceiling cap was legally preserved while the government will continue to provide emergency aid for those affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. As a result, the Brazilian Real reached its strongest level in two months. Looking ahead, the political scenario will continue to be turbulent as the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, scheduled the installation of the Covid-19 Parliamentary Investigation Committees (CPI, in Portuguese) for Tuesday. Fiscal risk also remains in the spotlight as House Speaker Arthur Lira will present the tax reform report on 3 May. The proposal aims to simplify the tax system, bring tax collection gains for the country, and improve the business environment. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (04/26): BCB Focus Market Readout | Foreign Direct Investment (Mar) | CAGED Net Payroll Jobs
  • On Tuesday (04/27): Mid-Month Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) (Apr)  
  • On Wednesday (04/28): FGV Consumer confidence (Apr)
  • On Thursday (04/29): IGP-M Inflation Index (Apr) | Bank Lending (Mar)
  • On Friday (04/30): Unemployment Rate | Debt-to-GDP ratio (Mar) | Budget Balance (Mar)

Quick Insights

USD: The Fed/FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be the week’s highlight

USD: The Fed/FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be the week’s highlight

EUR: Forecasts suggest that the European Union entered a double-dip recession in Q1

EUR: Forecasts suggest that the European Union entered a double-dip recession in Q1

GBP: A lack of relevant figures will leave the GBP exposed to the Covid-19 situation and market risk sentiment

GBP: A lack of relevant figures will leave the GBP exposed to the Covid-19 situation and market risk sentiment

JPY: Renewed fears around armed conflicts across the globe led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets

JPY: Renewed fears around armed conflicts across the globe led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets

CAD: The Canadian GDP number is likely to bring a solid growth rate in February

CAD: The Canadian GDP number is likely to bring a solid growth rate in February

MXN: February’s Economic Activity is likely to flag a recovery while lingering below pre-pandemic levels

MXN: February’s Economic Activity is likely to flag a recovery while lingering below pre-pandemic levels

CNY: Geopolitics developments will continue to be monitored, including U.S.-China, U.S-Russia relations, as well as conflicts in Iran

CNY: Geopolitics developments will continue to be monitored, including U.S.-China, U.S-Russia relations, as well as conflicts in Iran

BRL: Political scenario will continue to be turbulent as the Covid-19 Parliamentary Investigation Committees is scheduled for Tuesday

BRL: Political scenario will continue to be turbulent as the Covid-19 Parliamentary Investigation Committees is scheduled for Tuesday

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