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First flash estimates of Q4 GDP will be key

USD

The spotlight over the upcoming week is likely to be on President Biden’s first full week in office amid key economic events. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet for the first time in 2021 on Wednesday. Although the monetary policy is expected to keep unchanged, market players will be looking for forward guidance. Furthermore, Quarterly GDP figures are set to be released on Thursday. On Friday, December inflation and personal spending figures, along with January’s PMI for Chicago will wrap things up. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/25): Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec) | US Dallas Fed survey (Dec)
  • On Tuesday (01/26): Conference Board consumer confidence (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (01/27): Durable goods orders (Dec) | FOMC rate decision plus press conference
  • On Thursday (01/28): GDP (Q4) | New home sales (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/29): Personal consumer expenditure index (Q4) | Personal spending (Dec) | Uni. Michigan consumer sentiment (Jan) | Chigaco PMI (Prelim, Jan)

EUR

The week kicks off with German business sentiment and European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde speaking at a conference on "Green Banking and Green Central Banking: What are the right concepts?" on Monday. Following on from the release of the January flash PMIs last week, which showed a sharper contraction in Eurozone economic activity compared to December, consumer sentiment is provided on Thursday. Inflation is not the most important point on the ECB agenda, but it will of course be monitoring the early readings from Germany and Spain next week also on Thursday. It is expected that there will be plenty of EUR sensitivity to the numbers. Ending the week, the focus will shift to 4th quarter GDP numbers on Friday. French, German, and Spanish GDP numbers are due out. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/25): Germany Ifo business climate index (Jan) | ECB President Lagarde Speaks 
  • On Wednesday (01/27): Germany Gfk consumer confidence (Jan)
  • On Thursday (01/28): Eurozone consumer confidence (Jan) | Germany and Spain consumer price inflation (Jan)
  • On Friday (01/29): Germany, France and Spain GDP (Q4) | Eurozone money supply (Dec)

GBP

In Britain, worries persist over the Covid-19 situation and its impact on economic activity. However, with inoculations fully underway, paired with strict lockdown measures, daily cases have fallen from their peak in early January. The critical thing to note is the labor market situation. This week brings the U.K’s unemployment figures on Tuesday, which is expected to rise to 5.1% up from 4.9% the quarter before. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is under huge pressure to deliver more relief for labor and small businesses in his March budget and the data is likely to prove supportive. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (01/26): Labor market report including unemployment, vacancies & wage growth (Nov)
  • On Friday (01/29): Nationwide Housing Price Index (HPI) (Jan)

JPY

It is a busy week ahead. The monetary policy meeting minutes on Monday will be eyed for any clues that Prime Minister Suga will deliver another package of fiscal stimulus near mid-year as new elections are this autumn. On the data front, official figures for December are released covering retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, inflation, and construction orders. December retail trade data on Thursday will draw plenty of interest. Retail sales are expected to have fallen for the first time since September, according to consensus polling. Regarding industrial production, some downbeat numbers are also expected. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (01/26): BoJ monetary policy meeting minutes
  • On Wednesday (01/27): Leading economic index (Nov)
  • On Thursday (01/28): Retail trade (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/29): Tokyo consumer prices inflation (Dec) | Unemployment (Dec) | Industrial production (Dec) | Construction orders (Dec)

CAD

Last week, not only did Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Macklem rule out a so-called micro rate cut, but the BoC also upgraded its forecasts and guided that “the arrival of effective vaccines combined with further fiscal and monetary policy support has boosted the medium-term growth outlook. It is a light week ahead on the economic calendar. Building permits, GDP, and raw material price index are due out. November’s monthly GDP figures should gain some attention, as it will anticipate an even weaker result for December and January. In general, the lack of economic data will leave markets eying U.S economic and fiscal policy news. Key figures coming up:

  • On Thursday (01/28): Building Permits (Dec)  
  • On Friday (01/29): GDP (Nov) | Budget Balance (Nov) | Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI)

MXN

In Mexico, similar to its Latin American peers, the Covid-19 narrative has not improved much. Nearly a year into the Covid-19 pandemic, Mexico is entering its darkest phase yet. The country is reporting new record deaths each day, with the three-day moving average reaching a peak of 1,571 on Sunday and new infections up 21,134. There will be key economic data releases over this coming week, starting with economic activity on Monday, followed by retail sales and trade balance in the middle of the week. On Friday, fourth-quarter GDP is expected at -5.1% vs. -8.6% year-on-year in Q3. The data is likely to encourage Mexico’s Central Bank to resume its easing cycle soon. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/25): Economic Activity (Nov)  
  • On Tuesday (01/26): Retail Sales (Nov)
  • On Thursday (01/28): Trade Balance (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/29): GDP (Q4) 

CNY

Recently, China has reported a climb in new Covid-19 cases driven by a spike in infections among previously symptomless patients in northeastern Jilin province. Thus, Covid-19 updates and another harsh lockdown are expected to influence the Chinese Yuan over the upcoming week. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to deliver his first speech since Joe Biden entered the White House. Xi will speak later today at the Davos Agenda event, where his remarks could set the tone for relations between the world’s biggest economies over the next four years. Looking ahead, December industrial profits and PMIs data are due out of China and expected to provide the markets with direction. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (01/26): Industrial profits (Dec)
  • On Saturday (01/30): Composite, Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs (Jan)

BRL

The political situation in Brazil has started to gain more attention. The end of the emergency aid and flaws in the national vaccination plan have undermined President Jair Bolsonaro’s approval rating, which fell from 37% to 31%. Last Saturday (01/23), motorcade rallies across Brazil protested against the government calling for the impeachment of President Bolsonaro. The sharp drop in popular support puts the government in a difficult situation for the next couple of weeks. Regarding fiscal health, calls from a new round of emergency payments are growing among congress members, local governments, and economists. However, since the public debt is increasing, where will they get the funds from? Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (01/26): BCB Copom Meeting Minutes | FGV Consumer confidence (Jan) | Mid-Month Consumer Price Index (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (01/27): Foreign Exchange Flows
  • On Thursday (01/28): Unemployment (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/29): Producer Price Index (Dec) | Debt-to-GDP ratio (Dec)

Quick Insights

USD: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet for the first time in 2021

USD: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet for the first time in 2021

EUR: Inflation is not the most important point on the ECB agenda

EUR: Inflation is not the most important point on the ECB agenda

GBP: In Britain, worries persist over the Covid-19 situation

GBP: In Britain, worries persist over the Covid-19 situation

JPY: The monetary policy meeting minutes on Monday will be eyed

JPY: The monetary policy meeting minutes on Monday will be eyed

CAD: It is a light week ahead on the economic calendar

CAD: It is a light week ahead on the economic calendar

MXN: Mexico is entering its darkest phase yet

MXN: Mexico is entering its darkest phase yet

CNY: Chinese President Xi Jinping will speak later today at the Davos Agenda event

CNY: Chinese President Xi Jinping will speak later today at the Davos Agenda event

BRL: The sharp drop in popular support puts Bolsonaro’s government in a difficult situation

BRL: The sharp drop in popular support puts Bolsonaro’s government in a difficult situation

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