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Economic calendar for this week

USD

Last week President-elect Biden unveiled his massive USD 1.9tn (9% of GDP) stimulus package, which was largely responsible for moving markets. This week kicks off with market players out for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day before emphasizing the U.S earnings season, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and other large players. This week will also see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th of January. In regards to economic data, markets will be assessing the weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday to see if there’s an extension to the recent upturn, flagging what looks to be some damage to the job market from soaring Covid-19 infections. To close the week, preliminary manufacturing and service Purchasing Managers' Indices will be in focus. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/18): Markets Closed (Martin Luther King Jr. Day)
  • On Wednesday (01/20): MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 15) | Joe Biden inauguration
  • On Thursday (01/21): Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 16)
  • On Friday (01/22): Markit U.S Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI (Prelim, Jan) | Existing Home Sales (Dec)

EUR

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its first meeting of 2021 on Thursday. Policymakers are expected to leave stimulus programs unchanged after having just expanded them in December. However, the economic recovery is still fragile and the near-term outlook is a bit clouded again by the discovery of new Covid-19 strains and the relatively slow pace of the vaccination rollout. Ahead of all of the above, the ECB will also decide on interest rates. In regards to the macro data, preliminary January PMIs for the eurozone and several countries, including Germany and France, are due out on Friday. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (01/19): Eurozone - ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (01/20): Germany - Producer Prices (Dec) | Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Dec)
  • On Thursday (01/21): Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate (Jan) | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) | ECB Press Conference | Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Jan)
  • On Friday (01/22): Markit Eurozone, Germany, and France Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI (Prelim, Jan)

GBP

In the U.K., the spotlight over the upcoming week is likely to be on progress with vaccination programs amid the current spike in Covid-19 cases due to the new virus variant and the low adherence to lockdown and social distancing rules. It is a busy week as to macroeconomic data, with the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday expected to rise by 0.5%, up from 0.3% a month before. The first PMI data of 2021 on Friday will also be eyed and could be weaker than anticipated, followed by retail sales at the end of the week. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/18): BoE Gov Bailey Speaks     
  • On Tuesday (01/19): Labour Productivity (Q3) | BoE MPC Member Haldane Speaks
  • On Wednesday (01/20): Consumer Price Index (Dec) | House Price Index (Dec) | Producer Price Index (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/22): GfK Consumer Confidence Survey | Markit U.K Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI (Prelim, Jan) | Retail Sales (Dec)

JPY

Currently, Japan has 322,296 Covid-19 cases, with a seven-day moving average of daily cases reaching an all-time over 7,000 just a couple of days ago. In the face of soaring Covid-19 infections, the International Olympic Committee, the Japanese Government, and public opinion find themselves split up as to hold the Tokyo Olympics this summer. In the meantime, negative rates, alongside increasingly deflationary Consumer Price Index readings may drive further policy easing. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces a tough challenge ahead as room for further easing is scarce. Chances are, the BoJ will opt for other tools for yield control, such as asset purchases. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/18): Industrial production (Final, Nov) | Capacity utilization (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (01/20): Exports and Imports (Dec) | Trade balance (Dec) | BoJ Monetary Policy Statement | BoJ Outlook Report | BoJ Interest Rate Decision
  • On Thursday (01/21): Consumer Price Index (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/22): Jibun Bank Manufacturing, Services and Composite PMI (Prelim, Jan)

CAD

In Canada, the week kicks off with housing starts and foreign securities purchases figures on Monday, then the attention turns to manufacturing and wholesale sales figures on Tuesday. Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting will present its interest rate decision statement along with a fresh set of forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report. There are odds of a 10-15 basis point rate cut, given that Governor Macklem has mentioned such a move as a possible tool in the Bank of Canada’s arsenal. In regards to the economic outlook, the BoC is expected to reinforce the risks to exports from an appreciating exchange rate. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/18): Housing Starts (Dec) | Foreign Securities Purchases (Nov)
  • On Tuesday (01/19): Manufacturing Sales (Nov) | Wholesale Sales (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (01/20): Consumer Price Index (Dec) | BoC Monetary Policy Report | BoC Interest Rate Decision | BoC Press Conference
  • On Thursday (01/21): ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
  • On Friday (01/22):  Retail Sales (Nov)

MXN

Last week, though risk-off impulses picked up from soaring Covid-19 numbers and the worsening of the global economic outlook, the Mexican peso was able to get back on track, appreciating more than 1% against the greenback. It is a relatively quiet week, though, there are two economic data points eagerly awaited by investors and traders. At the end of the week, Mexico reports the Unemployment rate on Thursday, then the market’s attention will turn to the Consumer Price Index on Friday. The inflation is expected at 3.22% year-on-year vs. 3.22% in mid-December. If so, it would remain at the lowest levels since May, near the 3% target, and within the 2-4% target range. With the economy remaining weak and inflation falling, economists expect Mexico’s central bank to restart the easing cycle.  The next policy meeting is February 11th and a 25 basis point cut to 4.0% is likely then. Key figures coming up:

  • On Thursday (01/21): Unemployment Rate (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/22): 1st Half-Month Consumer Price Index (Jan)

CNY

There are recent economic hopes for China after GDP rose 6.5% in Q4/20, which came better than expected and above pre-pandemic growth rates. The data also meant the Chinese economy was the only major one to avoid a contraction in 2020. A close eye will be kept on the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) on Tuesday. The PBoC is likely to leave its benchmark 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates unchanged, but a minority expects a small hike. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/18): GDP (Q4) | Industrial Production (Dec) | Retail Sales (Dec)
  • On Tuesday (01/19): PBoC Loan Prime Rate 1-Year (%)

BRL

The Brazilian real has been oscillating widely over the last weeks, amid continued concerns about the slower-than-expected rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and the fiscal health situation. The Brazilian government is attempting to initiate the national vaccination plan with the possibility of acquiring vaccines from India or by using China’s Coronavac, which has been produced by the state of São Paulo. There is a political breach around it, and the state of São Paulo vaccinated the first person in Brazil soon after the Anvisa, the National Health Surveillance Agency, approved the use of the Coronavac and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines this Sunday (17). The Brazilian Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will meet on Wednesday to assess the basic interest rate (Selic). It is expected that Brazil’s central bank will hold its Selic rate unchanged at 2%, albeit inflation has started to pick up. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/18): IBC-Br Economic Activity (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (01/20): Foreign Exchange Flows | Interest Rate Decision
  • On Friday (01/22): IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 (Jan)

Quick Insights

USD: This week will see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th of January

USD: This week will see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th of January

EUR: The economic recovery is still fragile and the near-term outlook is a bit clouded again

EUR: The economic recovery is still fragile and the near-term outlook is a bit clouded again

GBP: The spotlight over the upcoming week is likely to be on progress with vaccination programs amid the current spike in Covid-19 cases

GBP: The spotlight over the upcoming week is likely to be on progress with vaccination programs amid the current spike in Covid-19 cases

JPY: Negative rates, alongside increasingly deflationary Consumer Price Index readings, may drive further policy easing

JPY: Negative rates, alongside increasingly deflationary Consumer Price Index readings, may drive further policy easing

CAD: Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting will present its interest rate decision statement

CAD: Wednesday’s Bank of Canada meeting will present its interest rate decision statement

MXN: Economists expect Mexico’s central bank to restart the easing cycle

MXN: Economists expect Mexico’s central bank to restart the easing cycle

CNY: The GDP rose 6.5% in Q4/20, which came better than expected and above pre-pandemic growth rates

CNY: The GDP rose 6.5% in Q4/20, which came better than expected and above pre-pandemic growth rates

BRL: The state of São Paulo vaccinated the first person in Brazil

BRL: The state of São Paulo vaccinated the first person in Brazil

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