Daily Market Pulse

USD Strengthens Amid Political Uncertainty in Europe and Hawkish Fed; Major Currency Pairs React to Economic Data and Central Bank Decisions

2 minute read

The USD rose 0.15% yesterday, experiencing haven demand after a relatively hawkish Fed dot plot and concerns about the French election. After the release of US PPI data yesterday (-0.2% m/m versus 0.1% forecast), the USD traded down as much as 0.25% before recovering. Ten-year Treasury yields fell nearly 7 basis points.

Haven flows to the USD amid continued political unease in Europe have the USD up against the G10 currencies, except CHF, this morning. Import price index data retreated more than expected. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment indices are released at 10 AM. The Fed’s Goolsbee, Mester, and Cook speak today.

EUR/USD fell over 0.6% yesterday and is trading another 0.6% lower this morning as concerns over political turmoil in France deepen. French President Macron has announced a snap legislative election, with the National Rally party leading in polls. The EUR last traded at these levels on May 1. ECB President Lagarde speaks later today.

GBP/USD closed 0.35% lower yesterday and is down nearly 0.7% today, trading approximately 0.4% lower than this time last week. A secondary measure of inflation was down to 2.8% from a prior reading of 3.0%. Investors await Wednesday’s main CPI print, where headline inflation is expected to retreat to 2.0% from a prior reading of 2.3%. Core and services inflation are also expected to retreat from prior levels. The Bank of England rate decision comes Thursday, June 20.

USD/CAD rose 0.15% yesterday and is nearly 0.3% higher this morning, trading nearly 0.4% higher than this time last week. Manufacturing sales data slightly missed expectations, though the prior reading was revised upwards. A light data slate next week is highlighted by the BOC’s Summary of Deliberations (Wednesday) from last week’s rate decision and retail sales data (Friday).

USD/JPY was up as much as 0.8% overnight after the BOJ rate decision but has since retraced the move. The BOJ held rates as expected, though it did not provide details about its plans to reduce bond purchases. At the press conference, BOJ head Ueda indicated that a July rate hike was possible, depending on incoming data.

 
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