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Potential impeachment vote & economic calendar

USD

After a riot at the U.S Capitol building last week, Donald Trump may face another impeachment vote. Thus, tensions could build again in the lead up to the Presidential inauguration on 20th January.  Markets seem to be looking through continued Covid-19 headwinds, however, and the “blue sweep” of Congress provides the prospect of greater public spending in the years to come, adding fuel to the economy. Nonetheless, the mixture of higher inflation and ultra-loose monetary policy is expected to weigh on the U.S dollar. Topping the economic release calendar, releases of retail sales, industrial production, and inflation for December, plus Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data for November. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): FOMC/Fed Member Bostic Speaks 
  • On Tuesday (01/12): NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey (Dec) | JOLTs Job Openings (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (01/13): Consumer Prices (Dec) | Fed Beige Book | MBA Mortgage Applications
  • On Thursday (01/14): Retail sales (Dec) | Jobless claims (w/c 1 Jan) | Import and export prices (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/15): Producer Prices (Dec) | Industrial Production (Dec) | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) | Business inventories (Nov) | Manufacturing production (Dec)

EUR

European countries are still struggling to contain Covid-19. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has urged citizens to adhere closely to tougher lockdown measures as Covid-19 deaths rise amid severe pressure on the health service. This week kicks off with European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde moderating a panel discussion during the One Planet Summit in Paris. In general, the Eurozone has light data week. On Wednesday investors will look out for Euro area industrial production figures for November. The ECB’s December Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday will shed more light on what the board members think about the euro. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • On Wednesday (01/13): Eurozone Industrial Production (Nov) | France Consumer Prices (Dec)
  • On Thursday (01/14): Germany GDP (2020) | ECB Monetary Policy Statement   
  • On Friday (01/15): Eurozone Trade Balance (Nov)

GBP

Similar to Eurozone countries, the near-term macroeconomic outlook will also be challenging as the U.K entered a third national lockdown at the end of 2020. Market players will be further assessing the impact of the end of the Brexit transition period, the lead up to which is likely to have provided a temporary boost to November’s GDP numbers, which are released on Friday. However, regardless of the GBP numbers, markets are already braced for even worse numbers in December and January as the lockdowns hit the economic activity. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11):   BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Dec)
  • On Tuesday (01/12): Trade Balance (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (01/13): RICS House Price Balance (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/15): GDP (Nov) | Industrial Production (Nov) | Manufacturing Production (Nov)

JPY

The public sentiment towards the Olympics in Japan has been less than optimistic for months, with the International Olympic Committee saying that it could not "be certain" the Games will go ahead as the country battles the third wave of infections. Last week, the USD/JPY pair traded higher in the wake of the Biden Presidency confirmation. That has pushed US yields higher with the JPY being very sensitive to yield differentials. Although it will be a shortened week due to a public holiday on Monday, Japan has a fairly busy data week. Japanese trade and machine orders data will be eyed for clues as to whether the country is benefiting from the recent uplift in regional trade. The Tertiary Industry Activity Index also will provide indications as to economic health. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): Public Holiday | Bank Lending (Dec)
  • On Tuesday (01/12): Current Account (Nov) | Trade Balance (Nov)
  • On Wednesday (01/13): Machine Tool Orders (Dec)
  • On Thursday (01/14): Producer Prices (Dec) | Machinery Orders (Nov) | Tertiary Industry Activity Index (Dec)

CAD

It is a relatively quiet week on the macroeconomic front. The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday will be eyed for clues as to whether the next 12 months will be better than the prior 12 months. Particularly, the BoC’s survey of consumer expectations should provide evidence on just how negative the Central Bank thinks Q1 will be. In absence of other economic news, Covid-19 and policy responses to it will be in the spotlight. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): BoC Business Outlook Survey & Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
  • On Friday (01/15): Existing Home Sales (Dec)

MXN

Mexico City and México state will remain in the “maximum” risk zone, red, on the Covid-19 stoplight map for a fourth consecutive week, meaning that all nonessential businesses must remain closed. The week kicks off with Industrial Production for November on Monday, followed by Gross Fixed Investments for October on Tuesday. Both readings should point to a slight contraction as economic activity continued to be impacted by Covid-19 restrictions. Due to a light week, U.S politics and developments of the Covid-19 vaccination program should remain on the radar. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): Industrial Production (Nov)
  • On Tuesday (01/12): Gross Fixed Investments (Oct)

CNY

The relatively strong recovery in China has buoyed riskier assets and investor sentiments about the global recovery, helping to push the Chinese Yuan to multiyear highs. It is a busy week on the economic front, but investors will primarily be focused on the end of the week when China provides not only its usual mass ‘data dump’ of monthly statistics but also issues its first estimate of the fourth-quarter GDP. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): Consumer Prices (Dec) | Producer Prices (Dec)
  • On Wednesday (01/13): Foreign Direct Investment (Dec)
  • On Thursday (01/14): Trade Balance (Dec) | New Loans (Dec) | Imports and Exports (Dec) | House Prices (Dec)
  • On Friday (01/15): China GDP (Q4) | Industrial Production (Dec) | Retail Sales (Dec) | House Prices (Dec)

BRL

Among the larger sovereign debts, there continuing concerns in Brazil with debt stabilization and the fact that it is hinging on economic and fiscal reforms. The country will end 2020 with a high government debt-to-GDP ratio of around 92% and is expected to remain high in the near to medium term. This situation remains as the main market narrative and is expected to continue to pressure the BRL. The upcoming week brings inflation figures on Tuesday, where market participants will assess whether the current inflation will likely make the central bank more cautious on easing rates further. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (01/11): Focus Market Readout
  • On Tuesday (01/12): Consumer prices (Dec)
  • On Wednesday (01/13): Service Sector Growth (Nov)
  • On Friday (01/15): Retail Sales (Nov) | IBC-Br Economic Activity (Nov)

Quick Insights

USD: The mixture of higher inflation and ultra-loose monetary policy could weigh on the U.S dollar

USD: The mixture of higher inflation and ultra-loose monetary policy could weigh on the U.S dollar

EUR: European countries are still struggling to contain Covid-19

EUR: European countries are still struggling to contain Covid-19

GBP: The near-term macroeconomic outlook will be challenging

GBP: The near-term macroeconomic outlook will be challenging

JPY: Latest data will be eyed for clues as to whether the country is benefiting from the recent uplift in regional trade

JPY: Latest data will be eyed for clues as to whether the country is benefiting from the recent uplift in regional trade

CAD: Covid-19 and policy responses to it will be in the spotlight

CAD: Covid-19 and policy responses to it will be in the spotlight

MXN: Mexico City and México state will remain in the “maximum” risk zone,  red, on the Covid-19 stoplight map for a fourth consecutive week

MXN: Mexico City and México state will remain in the “maximum” risk zone, red, on the Covid-19 stoplight map for a fourth consecutive week

CNY: The strong recovery in China, has buoyed riskier assets and investor sentiment

CNY: The strong recovery in China, has buoyed riskier assets and investor sentiment

BRL: Among the larger sovereign debts, the concerns are largest in Brazil with debt stabilization hinging on economic and fiscal reforms

BRL: Among the larger sovereign debts, the concerns are largest in Brazil with debt stabilization hinging on economic and fiscal reforms

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