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An early snapshot into economic growth & Economic Calendar

USD

The first week of March kicks off with the Manufacturing PMI survey on Monday, which will provide an early snapshot into economic growth and inflation trends midway through the first quarter of 2021. Also, the Services PMI index on Wednesday should remain at healthy levels, however, a strong optimism in the sector is expected for late spring and summer as more Americans are vaccinated and restrictions are lifted. OPEC+ is set to meet on Thursday, with Saudi Arabia and Russia discussing global oil supply imbalance amid talk of Commodities supercycles and even the return of $100 oil. In general, market participants will continue to monitor bond markets as higher yields have the potential to provide support for the U.S. dollar and diminish equities and emerging assets. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Construction Spending (Jan) | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Wednesday (03/03): ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) | Beige Book | ISM Services PMI (Feb)
  • On Thursday (03/04): Weekly Jobless Claims | Factory Orders (Jan) | OPEC Meeting
  • On Friday (03/05): Unemployment Rate (Feb) | Trade Balance (Jan)

EUR

The Manufacturing PMI surveys will provide some light on the Eurozone economic recovery. Although Covid-19 containment measures have been tightened again this year, European members seem to be a bit better than last year owing in part to a revival in the manufacturing sector. This week’s focus will also be on the Consumer Price Index. If the European Central Bank wants proof that they need to continue offering stimulus, then Tuesday’s inflation figures should shed some light on it. In addition, retail sales data from Germany and Italy during the week, will also provide important fundamentals. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): France Industrial Production (Jan) | Italy Consumer Price Index (Feb, prelim) | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Tuesday (03/02): Eurozone Consumer Price Index (Feb) | German Retail Sales (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (03/03): Eurozone Services PMI (Feb)
  • On Thursday (03/04): ECB Economic Bulletin 
  • On Friday (03/05): Germany factory orders (Jan) | Italy retail sales (Jan)

GBP

The performance of the U.K. economy will be gauged by updates to the PMI surveys over the week. While the market expects the numbers to provide the Pound with direction, progress on the vaccination remains key near-term. Although it is a relatively quiet week on the economic front, Wednesday’s U.K. annual budget may concentrate much of the market’s attention. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is expected to balance additional spending, including the extension of existing pandemic relief programs, against potential plans to raise corporate taxes over time. It is worthwhile noting that the U.K. government debt has already rocketed to pre-1970 levels. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals (Jan) | Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Wednesday (03/03): Services PMI (Feb) | Annual Budget Release 
  • On Thursday (03/04): Construction PMI (Feb)
  • On Friday (03/05): Halifax house prices (Feb)

JPY

The Japanese yen was not able to absorb much of the optimism that prevailed in the FX market last week, with the JPY depreciating more than 1.3% against the U.S. dollar. This week sees Japan update cap-ex spending for Q4 that could influence revisions to the earlier GDP growth estimate, followed by employment figures for January, both on Monday. PMI surveys over this week should also indicate that Japanese economic growth has shown more resilience to Covid-19 restrictions in recent months as rising global trade has boosted many Asian economies. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Jobs/applications ratio (Jan) | Capital Spending | Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Tuesday (03/02): Services PMI (Feb)

CAD

In Canada, the week starts with current account figures on Monday. Canada’s current account deficit is expected to remain large in Q4, and although higher oil prices will help on that score in Q1, the current readings are flattered by the lack of the usual deficit in international travel. The Q4 GDP report along with the Ivey PMI survey will combine to offer material tracking of growth entering 2021. Canada’s GDP figures will be published on Tuesday. The OPEC+ meeting on Thursday is likely to provide some volatility to the FX markets as oil members are expected to offer guidance into the coalition's production plan going forward. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Current account (Q4)  
  • On Tuesday (03/02): GDP (Q4)
  • On Wednesday (03/03): Building Permits (Jan)     
  • On Thursday (03/04): Labour Productivity (Q4)
  • On Friday (03/05): Trade Balance (Jan) | Ivey PMI (Feb)

MXN

Last week market players received confirmation that Mexico’s economic recovery continued in Q4, but momentum is fading, due to the underwhelming dynamics in the services sector, hit by the worsening of the pandemic. At the same time, there were concerns about factory activity in Mexico as the fuel supply from Texas was impacted by an unusual deep freeze, putting the MXN under pressure. It is relatively quiet ahead on the economic front, with Manufacturing PMI providing some initial evidence of the industrial sector amid higher oil prices and fuel supply issues. In general, policy uncertainty, which has increased substantially in recent months, should once again put the MXN and financial metrics under stress. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Tuesday (03/02): Fiscal Balance (Jan)
  • On Friday (03/05): Gross Fixed Investments (Dec)

CNY

In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI survey on Monday will set the tone for the week, along with the Caixin Services PMI on Wednesday. Although this week brings just a couple of pieces of fresh economic data, the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, known as the “two sessions” will begin on Thursday. The typical focus includes attaining the goal of the economy by 2035, enhancing the national strategic scientific and technological strength as well as the stability of the industrial supply chain. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Tuesday (03/02): Caixin Services PMI (Feb)

BRL

Brazilian Real plummeted almost 4% over last week and more than 6.5% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in 2021. Much of that is due to a rise in the U.S. Treasury bond yields, which prompted investors to sell-off their position in risky assets and switch to U.S. bonds, along with President Bolsonaro’s populist actions. Following the change of Petrobras’ CEO, the privatization of state-owned electric utilities Eletrobras, and the regulatory framework of the postal sector will be in the spotlight over this week. On the economic front, inflation risk will be gauged by IPC-Fipe and Producer price index, both expected to be released on Tuesday. The inflation data will also provide crucial fundamentals for Brazil’s Central Bank to assess a rise in the benchmark interest rate “Selic” in the upcoming policy meeting. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (03/01): Markit Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
  • On Tuesday (03/02): IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (Feb) | Producer Price Index (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (03/03): GDP (Q4) | Markit Services PMI (Feb)
  • On Friday (03/05): Industrial Production (Jan)

Quick Insights

USD: Market participants will continue to monitor bond markets as higher yields have the potential to provide support for the U.S. dollar

USD: Market participants will continue to monitor bond markets as higher yields have the potential to provide support for the U.S. dollar

EUR: European members seem to be a bit better than last year owing in part to a revival in the manufacturing sectorDP in some major economies

EUR: European members seem to be a bit better than last year owing in part to a revival in the manufacturing sector

GBP: Wednesday’s U.K. annual budget may concentrate much of the market’s attention

GBP: Wednesday’s U.K. annual budget may concentrate much of the market’s attention

JPY: Japanese economic growth has shown more resilience to Covid-19 restrictions

JPY: Japanese economic growth has shown more resilience to Covid-19 restrictions

CAD: OPEC+ Meeting on Thursday is keen to provide some volatility to the FX markets

CAD: OPEC+ Meeting on Thursday is keen to provide some volatility to the FX markets

MXN: Policy uncertainty has increased substantially in recent months

MXN: Policy uncertainty has increased substantially in recent months

CNY: The annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference

CNY: The annual meetings of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference

BRL: The privatization of state-owned Eletrobras and the regulatory framework of the postal sector will be in the spotlight this week.

BRL: The privatization of state-owned Eletrobras and the regulatory framework of the postal sector will be in the spotlight this week.

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