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Economic calendar this week

USD

The U.S dollar saw a broad recovery last week as impulses to avoid risk rocked global financial markets. Markets are likely to remain jittery over this week, since a lot of positive headlines are already priced in, such as the discovery of several effective Covid-19 vaccines, vaccine rollout, and the “blue sweep” in the U.S are all reflected in the U.S dollar price to a large extent. However, the economic calendar could bring some relief. The first week of February kicks off with the release of final PMI data for January, providing an early insight into the health of the U.S private sector. On the corporate front, the fourth-quarter earnings season continues, with reports to watch including Alphabet, Amazon, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, Gilead Sciences, Ford, PayPal, and Snap. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (02/01): Construction Spending (Dec)
  • On Wednesday (02/03): Total Vehicle Sales (Jan) | Mortgage Applications (weekly)
  • On Thursday (02/04): Jobless Claims (weekly) | Factory Orders (Dec)
  • On Friday (02/05): Employment Report (Jan) | Trade Balance (Dec)

EUR

Approval of new Covid-19 vaccines, vaccine production capacity, and the speed of vaccine rollout will remain as crucial factors over this week, especially after the prolonged virus lockdown cycle and the vaccine rollout issues seen last week. The Eurozone has a busy week ahead on the data and political front. Final January PMI readings will be reported this week, with manufacturing on Monday and services and composite on Wednesday. The fourth-quarter GDP for the single currency area is released and looks set to show quarterly declines on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the Italian political drama may end this week, with media reports suggesting President Sergio Mattarella will decide on Monday whether to give Giuseppe Conte or perhaps someone else another mandate to form a government. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (02/01): Germany Retail Sales (Dec) | Eurozone Unemployment (Dec)
  • On Tuesday (02/02): Eurozone GDP (Q4) | Italy GDP (Q4) | France Consumer Price Inflation (Dec)
  • On Wednesday (02/03): ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting | Eurozone Consumer/Producer Price Inflation (Dec)
  • On Thursday (02/04): Eurozone Retail Sales (Dec)
  • On Friday (02/05): Germany Factory Orders (Dec) | France Trade Balance (Dec)

GBP

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy is in focus this week. The BoE meets on Thursday and is expected to keep policy steady, albeit recent remarks on negative rates roiled the markets. Investors will closely watch for the latest economic projections and a press conference by Governor Andrew Bailey, who will provide clues about the BoE’s further action in the future. Important data to follow include the final U.K January PMI readings, mortgage approvals, and the Nationwide Housing prices. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (02/01): Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Money Supply (Dec)
  • On Tuesday (02/02): Nationwide Housing Price Index (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (02/03): Composite and Services PMIs (Jan)
  • On Thursday (02/04): Construction PMI (Jan) | Bank of England interest rate decision and meeting minutes
  • On Friday (02/05): Halifax House Price Index (Jan)

JPY

Japan is expected to extend a state of emergency on Tuesday to curb the spread of Covid-19 in Tokyo and other areas. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has launched a raft of measures to contain a third wave of infections as his government remains determined that the Olympics will go ahead as planned on July 23. However, support for his administration has weakened over discontent with its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, which critics have called too slow and inconsistent. It is a light week on the economic front, the final PMI reading will be keenly watched on Monday, along with January vehicle sales. December household spending and the leading index will be reported Friday. Key figures coming up:

  • On Tuesday (02/02): Services PMI (Jan)
  • On Thursday (02/04): Household Spending (Dec) | Foreign Reserves (Jan) 
  • On Friday (02/05): Coincident Indicator (Dec) | Leading Index (Dec)   

CAD

In Canada, all eyes will be on January jobs figures on Friday, where it is expected to see a further decline and a higher unemployment rate. Unemployment is likely to rise to 8.9% from 8.8% in December. If so, this would be the second monthly rise from the cycle trough of 8.6% in November and would move further above the pre-pandemic rate of 5.7% from last February. That’s simply a reflection of Covid-19 case counts and a tightening in public health measures. Other key data to follow include trade balance, and Ivey and Markit PMI figures. Elsewhere, traders will look at the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) meeting for further clues on oil production in the near term. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (02/01): Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (02/03): OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting
  • On Friday (02/05): Employment Change (Jan) | Unemployment Rate (Jan) | Exports and Imports (Dec) | Trade Balance (Dec) | Ivey PMI (Jan)

MXN

The last week of the month brought important remarks from Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico), which ratified the country's short-term economic policy needs to be focused on attracting more investment and reducing internal economic uncertainty to help steer a sustained recovery from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Banxico also said inflation shocks have complicated the monetary policy. Markets will be closed on Monday due to the national holiday (Constitution Day). Traders will be back to work on Tuesday and Mexico Markit manufacturing PMI is due on the same day. OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets to review progress and compliance with agreed output cutbacks on Wednesday. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (02/01): Holiday - Constitution Day
  • On Tuesday (02/02): Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
  • On Wednesday (02/03): OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting

CNY

China is expected to be rapidly progressing with vaccination programs during the upcoming week amid significant new waves of Covid-19 cases detected in several regions. Nonetheless, the faster inoculation should allow domestic demand to strengthen in China, with a gradual easing of lockdown conditions. China’s official manufacturing PMI was released on Sunday and it reported that production and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates at the start of 2021, as well as a fresh decline in new export business was registered. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China continues to withdraw liquidity to control leverage ahead of the Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) next week. Key figures coming up:

  • On Wednesday (02/03): Caixin Services and Composite PMIs (Jan)

BRL

The political situation in Brazil is once again in the spotlight. Despite opinion polls registering a sharp drop in public support, President Jair Bolsonaro could be on the verge of scoring one of his biggest wins in office. Even with calls for his almost 60 impeachment requests, the president’s team is maneuvering to propel allies into the presidencies of the Senate and lower house of Congress in in-house elections to be held on Monday. If the candidates backed by Mr. Bolsonaro win the elections, the government will most likely be positively impacted. On the economic front, the recently announced public deficit is considered high and the unemployment figures are mixed (high, but better than expected). The emergency aid extension remains a fiscal risk, and a speedy vaccination is another important factor in providing economic results. Key figures coming up:

  • On Monday (02/01): Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | Trade Balance (Jan) 
  • On Tuesday (02/02): Industrial Production (Dec)
  • On Wednesday (02/03):  IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (Jan) | Markit Services PMI (Jan)
  • On Thursday (02/04): Auto Sales (Jan)

Quick Insights

USD: Markets are likely to remain jittery over this week

USD: Markets are likely to remain jittery over this week

EUR: The speed of vaccine rollout will remain a crucial factor

EUR: The speed of vaccine rollout will remain a crucial factor

GBP: Bank of England monetary policy is in focus this week

GBP: Bank of England monetary policy is in focus this week

JPY: Japan is expected to extend a state of emergency on Tuesday

JPY: Japan is expected to extend a state of emergency on Tuesday

CAD: All eyes will be on January jobs figures on Friday

CAD: All eyes will be on January jobs figures on Friday

MXN: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets on Wednesday

MXN: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meets on Wednesday

CNY: The People’s Bank of China continues to withdraw liquidity to control leverage ahead of the Spring Festival

CNY: The People’s Bank of China continues to withdraw liquidity to control leverage ahead of the Spring Festival

BRL: The political situation in Brazil is once again in the spotlight

BRL: The political situation in Brazil is once again in the spotlight

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