Daily Brief

Waiting anxiously for the anticlimax

2 minute read

USD: The announcement of the Conference Board's monthly consumer confidence index coincided with the US president's speech to the United Nations General Assembly. Consumer confidence touched an 18-year high.  Trump claimed to be the most successful president in America's history. The USD strengthened slightly on most fronts.  Its reaction to the widely-expected Federal Reserve rate hike this afternoon will depend on the committee's extended outlook for the economy and rates: another rate hike in December and two or more next year are already assumed by investors.

EUR: A day after the European Central Bank president spoke of a "vigorous" pick-up in inflation his lieutenant told reporters they were reading too much into the comment. ECB chief economist Peter Praet said "I don't think there was anything new in his communication". Investors assumed that he had rehearsed the comment with his boss, so the observation cost the EUR a backward step, though it was still ahead on the day by a fifth of a US cent.  

CAD: Investors seem unruffled by the continued reluctance of Canada to provide the third leg of the NAFTA stool. Although Washington's September 30 deadline for Ottawa's compliance is certain to be missed, investors see the foot-dragging as negotiating tactics. They continue to trust that it will be "all right on the night", if not at the end of the month then by the end of the year. The CAD was just about unchanged on the day against the USD, with no Canadian economic data to muddy the waters. 

GBP: In a further retracement of its across-the-board losses on Friday the GBP led the major currencies for a second day. As on Monday, it added an average of just 0.4% but the gains were apparent proof that investors have still not written off the possibility of a workable EU withdrawal deal.  The opposition Labour party helped it along by appearing to support a second referendum, which would include the option to remain in the EU.  

JPY: Following the Bank of Japan statement and the governor's speech the JPY had nothing further to say for itself on Tuesday. It was unchanged against the USD on the day and half a yen lower on the week.

 
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