PMI release today


Traders will be watching for the release of US Manufacturing and Services PMI later this morning. Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve slightly to 51.4 from 51.3, while Services PMI is expected to improve to 51.4 from 50.6. If these numbers come in as expected that could provide a boost for the USD.


The EUR/USD was the main mover overnight as the single currency moved higher after German Manufacturing PMI for November came in higher than expected at 43.8. This was better than the 42.9 number that analysts expected. However, not all news was positive as Services PMI hit a 38-month low at 51.3. This was lower than the 51.6 expected. As the numbers were released, the EUR moved to overnight highs. Then, the EUR reversed direction and moved lower after new ECB President Christine gave her first policy speech. In her speech Lagarde spoke of “ongoing trade tensions” that have contributed to a “slowdown in world trade growth”. She encouraged Euro Zone governments that have budget surpluses to spend more to boost the Euro Zone economy. Traders pushed the EUR lower as Lagarde spoke, feeling her comments were on the dovish side.  


GBP/USD is lower this morning after UK Manufacturing and Services PMI for November both came in lower than expected. Services PMI fell to 48.6, missing the expected number of 50.0, which was last month’s number. Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3, well below the expected 49.0 and lower than last month’s 49.6. With no real news on the election, the market reacted to the poor economic releases as the GBP has fallen to overnight lows.


USD/JPY trading near overnight lows as Japan Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.6 in November, up from 48.4 but just shy of the expected 48.7. Service PMI moved up to 50.4, up from 49.7. Japan core CPI rose to 0.4% year on year, up from 0.3%, which was expected. Core inflation remains below the BOJ target of 2%. Traders continue to look at JPY as the safe haven alternative as US-China trade talks continue.


USD/CAD is trading a bit lower as the market awaits Canadian Retail Sales release. Retail sales are expected to decline 0.3% in September with auto sales being the main culprit. Adding to the CAD woes is the price of oil which is lower this morning. 


According to the Wall Street Journal, China has extended an invitation to U.S. trade negotiators to come and open a new round of talks in an effort to come to a deal. This comes after market analysts have come to the conclusion that a deal may not be completed before the next round of US tariffs on Chinese goods going into effect on December 15th.

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