Daily Market Pulse

BOC Expected to Hold Rates, Japan Steps Up Intervention Rhetoric

5 minute read

USD

The Greenback is slightly lower this morning but still close to a six-month high following yesterday's impressive 0.6% rally sparked by broad market risk aversion.

The latest US mortgage data for the first week of September showed applications fell by 2.9%, after a 2.3% increase the week before. Refinancing and home purchase applications both declined while the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped slightly to 7.21%.

Later this morning, the ISM Services PMI print for August is due for release and is projected to come in at 52.5, just shy of the 52.7 seen in July and marking the eighth consecutive month of sector expansion.

EUR

After dropping nearly 0.7% against the Dollar yesterday, the Euro rebounded slightly today despite relatively weak Eurozone retail sales and German factory orders data this morning.

Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.2% in July, missing market expectations of a 0.1% decline, with automotive fuel sales notably down by 1.2%. However, sales of food, drinks, and tobacco increased by 0.4%, while online trade growth accelerated to 3.8% compared to June. On an annual basis, retail sales contracted 1%, slightly better than expected but still posting its tenth straight month of decline.

Meanwhile, Germany saw a substantial 11.7% drop in factory orders, much worse than expected and the most significant decline since April 2020. This was mainly due to weaker large orders, especially in aerospace.

GBP

The British Pound is marginally lower this morning, trading at its lowest level since June 13 as traders assess the latest construction PMI from the UK.

In August, the UK Construction PMI decreased slightly to 50.8 from 51.7 in July, just above the expected 50.7. The result was driven by a slight rise in construction activity, particularly in commercial and civil engineering, while home building declined. However, total new orders fell at the fastest rate since May 2020, and business forecasts weakened to the lowest level since January due to concerns about weaker future business prospects and reduced job creation.

JPY

The Japanese Yen is up by over 0.2% today after experiencing a 0.85% decline against the Greenback yesterday. The latest selloff sent the Yen to a fresh ten-month low, prompting Japanese officials to increase their market intervention rhetoric.

Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Masato Kanda, stated that "these developments bring uncertainty to businesses and households, which will have a negative impact on the economy," and added that the government was prepared to take action if speculative currency moves continue.

Meanwhile, BOJ member Hajime Takata has ruled out an early end to negative interest rates, emphasizing the need to maintain the current stimulus until the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved.

CAD

The Loonie is in the red again today in anticipation of the BOC's interest rate decision later this morning, where it is expected that the Bank will maintain rates at 5%.

On the data front, Canada's trade deficit in July was only CAD 0.99B, significantly lower than expected and a substantial improvement from June's CAD 4.92B deficit. The improvement was driven by a 5.4% decrease in imports, mainly due to reduced purchases of foreign gold and mineral products.

On the other hand, Canadian labor productivity declined by 0.6% in Q2, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decrease, driven by reduced business output and increased hours worked.

MXN

The Mexican Peso's selloff continues today, down another 0.6% this morning and over 2% for the week. The Peso is on track for its fifth consecutive losing day against the Greenback, marking its worst stretch since mid-May.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, Mexico's inflation data for August is set to be released at 8:00 AM EST. It is expected that annual inflation will have eased to 4.61% from the 4.79% seen in July. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to decrease to 6.12% compared to the 6.64% in the previous reading. Despite both figures moving in the right direction, they remain above Banxico's target range.

BRL

After falling 0.6% against the Dollar yesterday, the Brazilian Real is down by over 0.4% this morning amidst broader weakness in LATAM currencies as of late. Meanwhile, BRL traders continue to assess yesterday's fresh private sector and auto production data from Brazil.

The S&P Global Brazil Composite PMI rose to 50.6 in August, a result of expansion in both the service and manufacturing sectors. New orders increased, thanks to strong demand in the service sector, while job growth continued for the sixth consecutive month.

Finally, car production in Brazil rose by 24% month-on-month in August due to fewer stoppages and increased exports, although yearly production was down by 4.6%.

CNY

The Chinese Yuan is in the red for the third consecutive day, though it has rebounded from the day's lows after state banks intervened by selling US Dollars in the onshore market, as reported by Reuters. Additionally, the PBOC (People's Bank of China) continued its trend of setting the onshore fix higher than market forecasts in an attempt to stabilize the Yuan.

In the upcoming overnight session, China's August trade data is scheduled for release at 11:00 PM EST. Market forecasts indicate a 9.5% decline in exports, which is an improvement from the previous 14.5% drop but still marks the fourth consecutive month of weakening.

 
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