Daily Market Pulse


US Durable Goods Orders, German Consumer Morale Weakens
5 minute readUSD
Markets have had plenty to chew on from a US data perspective over the last 24 hours, including housing data and durable goods orders.
Yesterday, US new single-family home sales dropped by 8.7% to an annualized rate of 675K in August, missing expectations and reflecting rising mortgage rates. Meanwhile, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price index showed a 0.1% year-on-year increase in July, the first rise in five months, driven by limited housing supply.
EUR
The Euro’s struggles have continued this week after falling to a fresh six-month low in the European session, putting EUR/USD on track for its worst quarter of the year so far.
In Germany, the GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for October declined to -26.5, its lowest level since April, primarily due to increased saving propensity, weak income expectations, and hesitant buying intentions. Meanwhile, in France, consumer confidence dropped to 83 in September, the lowest since May.
Additionally, Bank lending to both households and companies in the Eurozone slowed significantly in August 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 1% and 0.6%, resulting in the weakest overall private sector credit growth since September 2015.
GBP
The British Pound hit a new six-month low versus the Greenback this morning due to expectations that the BOE won't raise interest rates further as the economy weakens, putting GBP/USD on pace for its largest monthly drop since August 2022. Markets are no longer pricing in further BOE rate hikes this year and anticipate rate cuts next summer.
Looking ahead to this evening, UK car production figures for August are slated for release at 7:01 PM EST. In July, UK car production increased by 31.6% compared to the previous year, marking the sixth straight month of growth after overcoming challenges like chip shortages.
JPY
The Japanese Yen hit a fresh 11-month low in the overnight session mainly due to rising US bond yields, keeping traders on high alert for signs of intervention from Japanese officials.
Meanwhile, the BOJ’s July meeting minutes showed policymakers expressed the need to maintain ultra-loose monetary policies, but they were divided on when to end negative interest rates. While some members believed there was still a long way to go before revising the negative interest rate policy, another member saw the possibility of assessing the 2% inflation target by early 2024.
On the data front, Japan's leading economic indicators index was revised slightly higher to 108.2 in July, while coincident economic indicator index was revised lower to 114.2, signaling ongoing fragility in the economy.
CAD
The Loonie coming off its worst daily performance since September 1 yesterday and is on pace for its first losing quarter against the Greenback since Q3 2022.
Looking ahead to tomorrow, Canada’s average weekly earnings release for July is scheduled for 8:30 AM EST. In June, Canada's average weekly earnings increased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining consistent May, with the highest gains observed in information and cultural industries, forestry and logging, and utilities.
Canada’s CFIB business barometer for September is also on the docket tomorrow morning. The optimism index has increased in each of the last two months, despite higher interest rates and slowing growth.
MXN
The Mexican Peso suffered another substantial loss against the Dollar yesterday and is approaching its lowest levels of the month ahead of tomorrow’s Banxico meeting.
Earlier today, Mexico’s trade deficit for August significantly decreased to $1.377B from $5.704B in August 2022, driven by a 3.8% increase in exports, particularly in non-oil products, while imports dropped by 4.3%, mainly due to reduced purchases of oil products.
Tomorrow morning, Mexico’s unemployment rate for August is set for release at 8:00 AM EST, and is expected to slightly increase to 3.2% from the 3.1% seen in July.
BRL
The Brazilian Real failed to hold on to its early gains yesterday and sank toward its lowest level since June as the stronger Dollar continues to weigh on LATAM currencies.
Meanwhile, total outstanding loans in Brazil increased by 1.1% in August, reaching BRL 5.5T, driven by a 1.3% rise in individual credit and 0.9% increase in corporate credit. However, year-on-year credit growth slowed to 8.9% compared to the previous year's 9.3% growth, and default rates reached 4.9%.
BRL traders will get another look at Brazilian inflation tomorrow, with both producer and wholesale price data on deck.
CNY
China's industrial profits continued to decline for the first eight months of the year, but the pace of the downturn improved slightly, with a 11.7% year-on-year drop compared to a 15.5% contraction for the first seven months. August earnings showed a surprise increase of 17.2% from a year earlier, driven by stabilizing domestic demand. State-owned firms saw a 16.5% profit decline, while foreign firms dropped 11.1%, and private-sector companies fell 4.6%.
In other news, the PBOC released a statement following its quarterly policy meeting stating it would "resolutely prevent currency overshooting risks and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels."