Daily Market Pulse

Don’t Fight the US Consumer

3 minute read

US September retail sales came in stronger than expected, and August's readings have been revised higher as well, sending the USD higher, equities lower, and Treasury yields higher this morning.

The headline figure of 0.7% was 0.4% stronger than expected, while the prior reading of 0.6% was revised higher by 0.2%.

This is yet another indicator of a strong US economy, with the September jobs numbers and last week's CPI beat being the other factors.

Until weak data becomes prevalent, the pressures of higher Treasury yields, and thereby a stronger USD, may continue.

It will certainly be interesting to see if today's data changes the tone of the remaining 18 Fed speeches this week.

A few other highlights: Oil has been steady overnight as President Biden prepares for his trip to Israel on Wednesday and is now also planning on attending a summit in Jordan with Jordan's King Abdullah, Egyptian President El-Sisi, and Palestinian President Abbas.

Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both beat their 3Q earnings expectations this morning. It's worth noting that BoA's losses in their bond portfolio climbed to a record $131 billion from $116 billion a year ago.

These losses are not considered in earnings because they are held to maturity, an accounting feature that has come under scrutiny.

The Fed's Beige Book and US housing starts are to be released tomorrow.

EUR/USD is somewhat unchanged on the day, recovering from the initial USD strength post-retail-sales release. The German ZEW Survey showed a better-than-expected increase, sparking some positivity for an economy that has seen slowing growth as of late. Even so, multiple banks now see parity back on the horizon.

USD/CAD is reasonably higher on the day as a double shot of strong US retail sales and weaker-than-expected CPI gives the Bank of Canada some breathing room to maintain a pause in rate policy next week. Year-over-year CPI came in at 3.8%, lower than the expected 4.0%. The MoM reading showed a 0.1% drop in prices versus the prior 0.4% gain. With the policy rate at 5% currently and CPI now on a 3-handle, it would be a hard argument for further rate hikes in the near future.

GBP/USD is lower on the day as wage growth figures show signs of cooling. Swati Dhingra, a rate-setter at the Bank of England, also had some dovish commentary regarding the figures and said that "we should see some relenting of domestic inflationary pressures." The next BoE rate meeting is on November 2nd.

USD/MXN is higher on the day in line with peers, moving further away from its 200-day moving average support. Retail sales and the Banamex Survey of Economists are due on Friday.

USD/BRL is higher on the day, although this morning's inflation reading showed a higher print than expected, leading to more support for the Real as expectations mount for the Brazilian Central Bank to slow down their cutting cycle in the near term.

 
Sign up for a free account

Sign up for a free account

Access our convenient and secure online platform to process your international payments. Manage beneficiaries and view payment status and history at the click of a button.

Find out more
FX business solutions

FX business solutions

We provide tailored services to help companies make international payments and manage their foreign exchange risk

Find out more