Daily Market Pulse

US Dollar Shows Signs of Life, Equities Slip as Fed Guidance Awaited
3 minute readThe US Dollar is trying to put up a fight this Tuesday as the downtrend is coming to a halt for now. The US Dollar Index is seeing a little bit of a bounce in Asian trading this Tuesday, with the DXY holding above 103. The economic calendar this Tuesday could spark some more movements in favor of the Greenback and see the bounce add another leg up later in the trading session.
Besides some rather light US data points markets can look forward to comments from four US Federal Reserve members. Two of them are speaking twice this Tuesday, so that makes it in total seven guidance events for the markets. Expect to see traders looking for clues on any further rates direction that the Fed may be considering.
Equities are continuing their decline from Monday with nearly every major index in the red across the globe. In Asia the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is down by 1%. European indices and US equity futures are mildly in the red. The 10-year US treasury is sitting around 4.38% and holding steady.
EUR/USD is basically flat from the previous trading session but continues to trade around it’s highest levels since August. It feels like any real moves in the pair will be led by the USD. Keep an eye on Consumer Confidence data being released for some direction on the pair.
GBP/USD is up for the fourth consecutive day and seems to be holding onto its bullish strength. GBP has benefited from hawkish comments from Bank of England officials while the USD comes in softer due to speculation the Fed looks to be done hiking rates and will soon change directions. BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated UK inflation is mostly homegrown and feels monetary policy needs to be restrictive for an extended period.
USD/CAD is trading lower in the early session and is extending its losses for the third consecutive day. A rebound in oil prices and some positive market sentiment is supporting the Canadian Dollar. Canadian GDP will be released this Thursday. Again, the market will be looking to today’s Fed speakers for guidance.
USD/BRL is trading in a rather confined range with little directional views. Traders will focus on local inflation data, easing pressure on core prices will increase bets on lower rates. Traders seem to be pricing in rate cuts of 50bps each at the next three meetings until March.
USD/MXN continues its moves seeing the Mexican Peso continue to rally, 5.9% against dollar this month. The pair is expected to drift towards next potential support levels The Banxico will release quarterly inflation data on Wednesday.