Daily Market Pulse

JOLTS Data Release; USD Gains, EUR/USD and GBP/USD Drop, CAD Stabilizes
3 minute readThe Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will be released today by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The publication will provide data about the change in the number of job openings in April, alongside the number of layoffs and quits. JOLTS data is scrutinized by market participants and Federal Reserve policymakers because it can provide valuable insights regarding the supply-demand dynamics in the labor market, a key factor impacting salaries and inflation. Job openings have been trending down over the last year and a half, pointing to cooling conditions in the labor market. In March, the number of job openings stood at 8.48 million, marking the lowest reading since February 2021.
EUR/USD is down on the day. EUR/USD rose sharply and reached its highest level since late March on Monday. After edging higher in the Asian session today, the pair lost its traction and retreated lower. Early today, the negative shift seen in risk mood helped the USD stay resilient against its rivals. At the time of writing, major equity indexes in the US were down between 0.4% and 0.5%. EUR/USD is down as the US Dollar manages to gain ground. The major event for the Euro will be the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, which will be announced on Thursday. As ECB policymakers have remained comfortable with expectations of opting for the first rate cut since 2019, investors are keen to know the interest rate outlook beyond the June meeting.
GBP/USD has lost some ground this morning. The USD came under heavy selling pressure in the US session on Monday after data showed that the ISM index dropped to 48.7 in May from 49.2 in April. This reading indicated that economic activity in the manufacturing sector continued to contract at a faster pace. Moreover, the inflation component of the PMI survey, the Prices Paid Index, fell to 57 from 60.9.
USD/CAD is up on the day and has halted a three-day losing streak. The appreciation of the pair is attributed to the decline in crude oil prices, given that Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday as inflation in Canada cooled down in April. The divergence in policy rates between the BoC and the Fed might drag the Canadian Dollar lower and create a tailwind for USD/CAD. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said that a rate cut is possible but that the decision would be driven by economic data.
USD/MXN is much higher as the peso resumes its downtrend after a brief pause on Tuesday, following an over 4% decline in its key pairs on Monday. The peso went into freefall after early indications showed President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum and her Morena party were heading for a landslide victory in the Mexican presidential and congressional elections held on Sunday.