EUR/USD

Spot starts the week off relatively quietly in a 0.40% range after last week’s volatility-inducing triple-shot of the Fed decision, ECB decision, and Non-Farm Payrolls data. This week is light data-wise, but we do have a speech today from the ECB’s Robert Holzmann and tomorrow from the Fed’s Jerome Powell, both of which may look to clarify their respective organization’s messages from a few days ago. 

USD/CAD

Spot starts off the week about 0.25% higher from last week’s close, broadly in line with other USD peers. Canadian unemployment and payrolls data this coming Friday is the economic highlight of the week for the pair, with only a 15k gain expected versus a previous reading of +104k. It will be interesting to see if this data is on par with what happened in the US last week, a massive gain several times that of expectations.

GBP/USD

While it has been somewhat of a choppy overnight session, spot is relatively unchanged versus last week’s close. BoE member Catherine Mann said another rate hike is likely, with Governor Andrew Bailey and Chief Economist Huw Pill still set to speak today. The market has taken note of recent signs of dovishness from the BoE, however, and this has taken some of the steam out of the Pound’s strong 16.5% rise from last September’s lows. 

USD/BRL

Spot starts the week about 0.8% stronger, partially on the strong US data from last week and partially due to continued uncertainty surrounding several instances of anti-central bank independence comments by President Lula da Silva. Lula will be making a speech today during the swearing-in ceremony of the new President of the Brazilian Development Bank and all eyes will be on whether he extends or walks back some of his recent rhetoric. 

USD/MXN

Spot is about 0.5% higher on the day in line with USD peers after last week’s strong US data. This week brings major Mexican economic data with CPI on Thursday morning and the Banxico rate decision later in the day. The market is pricing a hike to 10.75%, indicating a slowing pace thereafter. Said policy has been key in the strength of the Peso in the last year, one of Latam’s best performers against the USD.