USD

The Greenback is trading lower on the day as markets react to this morning’s US jobless claims and Philadelphia manufacturing report.

Initial jobless claims decreased to 239K last week, coming in close to the expected 240K. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose to 1.716M in the first week of August, more than the expected 1.7M.

Meanwhile, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index surprisingly increased to +12 in August, rebounding from July and beating expectations of -10. This marks the first increase in the index since August 2022, driven by improvements in new orders and shipments, although employment remained on the decline.

EUR

The Euro is up around 0.2% this morning, still looking for its first winning day versus the Dollar since last Thursday as traders evaluate the latest US and European data on an otherwise quiet morning.  

This morning’s Balance of Trade report showed the Eurozone had a surplus of EUR 23B in June, compared to a deficit of EUR 27.1B a year earlier. Imports dropped by 17.7%, while exports slightly increased by 0.3%, boosted by higher shipments of machinery and transport equipment.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Eurozone’s final July CPI print is set for release at 5:00 AM EST. 

GBP

The Pound is back in the green today, heading into the North American session ahead of tomorrow’s retail sales report out of the UK.  The Pound has been given a boost from this week’s UK GDP and inflation releases that field market bets on further BoE rate hikes.  As of this morning, market pricing pointed to a nearly 90% chance of a 0.25% rate hike at the Bank’s next meeting in September.

Tomorrow, the UK’s July retail sales report is expected to show a 0.5% monthly decline in sales, which would be the first drop since March.  From an annual perspective, markets are anticipating a 2.1% decline.

JPY

Fresh off its eight consecutive daily loss, the Japanese Yen is up around 0.3% this morning in the aftermath of Japan's disappointing trade report for July.

Japan's trade deficit surprisingly grew in July versus market expectations for surplus, largely due to a 0.3% year-on-year decline in exports for the first time since February 2021, mainly due to reduced demand from important markets such as China. Electrical machinery shipments saw the biggest drop of 7.3%. 

Meanwhile, Japan's imports fell by 13.5% year-on-year, the most significant drop in almost a year, led by lower purchases of mineral fuels and electrical machinery.

CAD

The Loonie is up over 0.15% on the day, still looking for its first winning day of the week, as traders digest the latest employment figures out of Canada and the US.

According to Statistics Canada, 410K Canadians received regular Employment Insurance benefits in June, up by 1.8% from May.  This marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase, with Quebec, Alberta, and Saskatchewan accounting for much of the June uptick.

In a separate report, foreign investors increased their exposure to Canadian securities by a net CAD 12.56B in June, led by larger holdings of money market instruments and corporate bonds, while Canadian holdings of foreign securities rose to the highest level in seven months.

MXN

After closing yesterday, little changed against the Greenback. The Mexican Peso is in the green this morning as traders brace for tomorrow’s highly anticipated retail sales report out of Mexico.

Markets expect retail sales to have risen 2.9% year-on-year in June, which would be an improvement from the 2.6% increase seen in May and the 28th consecutive month of annualized growth.  In addition, from a monthly perspective, sales are expected to have climbed 0.9% in June, rebounding from May’s 0.5% decline.

Meanwhile, the Peso is finding some support from oil prices, which are back in the green today after posting three consecutive losing days.

BRL

The Brazilian Real is slightly higher as Wall Street enters the fray, looking to regain momentum amidst a three-week skid that has seen BRL tumble to its lowest level since late May.

According to the latest poll from Genial/Quaest, Brazilian President Lula da Silva's government gained more approval amongst voters in August, with positive views rising to 42% while negative opinions dropped to 24%. Lula's approval, in particular, received support from 60% of respondents, the highest since he took office. Meanwhile, economic optimism increased to 34% thanks to lower food prices, and optimism about future economic conditions grew to 59%.  

CNY

The Chinese Yuan is up over 0.3% this morning as it looks to snap a five-day losing streak versus the Dollar that saw CNY sink to a fresh-nine-month low yesterday. 

Today's rebound comes amidst reports indicating China's state-owned banks were selling Dollars to buy Yuan to prop up the faltering currency following the latest sting of concerning headlines surrounding China's economy.  

Meanwhile, CNY traders are bracing for more potential rate cuts coming this weekend when the PBoC announces its decision on its loan prime rates.  Markets expect both the one- and five-year rates to be slashed 0.15%.  The Bank made a similar adjustment to its medium-term lending facility rate earlier this week.