Trading well within recent range yesterday, the USD would recover from overnight lows to end the day flat after mixed tier 2 US data releases. Rising as much as 0.3% overnight ahead of US Q4 GDP (second release) and core PCE index data, the USD would trade marginally stronger on the releases. The second revision of Q4’23 ticked down to 3.2% (expected and prior at 3.3%), while the core PCE index ticked up to 2.1% (expected and prior at 2.0%). The Fed’s Bostic, Collins, and Williams speak today.

NZD/USD was down over 1% entering the North American session after the RBNZ – while leaving the official cash rate unchanged, as expected - trimmed its projections for the policy rate. The RBNZ sees rates will begin gradually falling in Q1’25, compared to Q2’25 at the November update. Following weaker-than-expected 3Q’23 growth data, the RBNZ’s growth outlook was revised down for 4Q23.

EUR/USD is down 0.2% today and is 1.1.% higher from mid-February lows. Eurozone confidence indicators were lower on balance overnight, while investors turn their attention to Friday’s Eurozone aggregate CPI, unemployment rate, and manufacturing PMI data Friday.

GBP/USD is 0.2% lower today and is 0.9% higher from mid-February lows. Speaking yesterday, BOE Deputy Governor Ramsden suggested a willingness to shrink the central bank’s bond holdings even after hitting the “preferred minimum range of reserves”, somewhat at odds with US Fed Reserve policy. BOE member Mann speaks later today.

USD/CAD is 0.3% higher today after setting a fresh YTD high (+2.5% since January 1st) ahead of the NA session. The pair is also at its highest level since mid-December. Crude oil prices are recovering early in the North American session but were down 0.9% overnight, while the overnight RBNZ decision has also induced softness in other commodity currencies. Key domestic data comes tomorrow with the latest GDP figures.

USD/MXN is roughly flat to yesterday’s close. The pair continues to trade in tighter ranges this month as volatility measures reach multi-year lows. The Mexican central bank releases its inflation report this afternoon, with domestic employment data coming tomorrow.

USD/BRL fell 0.9% yesterday after Brazilian inflation data came in at its highest monthly clip since April 2022, though the BRL has fallen 0.4% today. Domestic GDP data comes Friday.