Grexit Grepulsed?

Oh, alright then
Let's get this right: A radical anti-austerity party is elected. It spends five months refusing to accept its creditors' demands for austerity. It holds a referendum to validate its hard-line anti-austerity stance. Then it caves in and agrees to terms rejected by that plebiscite. Pyrrhus must be turning in his grave.

If the Brussels- and Athens-watchers have got it right, the latest proposals from the Greek government conform with the demands of its Troika of creditors; the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission. That being the case, the Eurogroup of finance ministers will give its assent to a new financial support package which will be rubber-stamped by an EU summit on Sunday, Greece will stay in the euro and there will never be another mention of Greek bailouts

That, at any rate, is how investors are interpreting yesterday's developments. There has been no celebratory buying of the euro though: except for a dozen or two ticks it is unchanged on the day against the North American and Australian dollars, the Swedish krona and the British pound. Any elation at the avoidance of euro zone chaos is tempered by the idea that it will also have removed a significant constraint on US and UK interest rate increases.

Faster minutes
That does not mean the Bank of England will be any hurry to increase rates. Yesterday the MPC kept Bank Rate at 0.5% for a 77th month. This will be the last time investors have to wait two weeks for the minutes of the meeting: from August onwards they will be published immediately.

Having tested the system internally the Monetary Policy Committee will in future release the minutes on the day of the meeting. That might turn out to be too much information but at least it will eliminate the fortnight of speculation about who voted for what. 

Aside from Greece's capitulation the MPC's no-change decision was one of Thursday's most exciting events. The biggest currency gain was made by the Norwegian krona, which strengthened by 1.1% on the back of slightly higher oil prices. Japan's yen brought up the rear, falling by 0.4%, as the supposed Greek breakthrough reduced the appetite for a safe haven.

Canadian jobs and Greece
Today's brief agenda began with a 6.1% monthly fall in Australian mortgage lending and will end with a speech by the Federal Reserve chairperson. There will only be a handful of economic statistics.

This morning France, Greece and Italy report on industrial production, Norway announces its latest inflation data and Britain reveals the size of May's trade deficit. After lunch US wholesale sales inventories follow the important Canadian jobs numbers.

However optimistic investors might be about a resolution of Greece's situation, and irrespective of euro zone leaders' enthusiasm to keep the single currency together, it is not yet a done deal. It might still not be a done deal on Monday. Caution is still advised. Have a breathless weekend.