Discover key events from Q2 and how they affected currency markets, as well as what may happen in Q3 to sterling, the US dollar and the euro. Covering the further unlocking of UK economy, Europe’s vaccine programme rapidly catching up with UK’s, the US states loosening restrictions, plus inflation spikes in US and hits 2 year high in the UK, learn what these events mean for your money.
The Secret Economist reveals guidance to help you make more informed decisions on when and how to make your international payments.
Quarter 1 debrief and Quarter 2 outlook
The UK pound experienced significant outperformance versus US dollar, euro and yen, thanks to better data and a faster vaccine delivery in Q1. But what could Q2 hold for sterling?
2021 is so far shaping up to be a year of two tales, namely Brexit and Covid-19 once again dominating and also defining the eagerly anticipated Budget announcement Nevertheless, we are seeing sure signs of the Government shifting gears from ‘survive’ to ‘thrive’, with the economy forecast to rebound in 2021, with projected annual growth of 4% this year. How to unlock the UK, and its economy though, is going to take time.
Confidence is once more jittery, after January brought a whole host of blues including new lockdowns. However, there were glimmers of hope that the world is heading for recovery soon, but it’ll be a bumpy road to get there. Despite all the doom and gloom of the economy, and another strict lockdown, the UK’s vaccination rollout programme has been hailed as one of the most successful. Negative interest rates have also been taken off the table, but then, were they ever on it?
The news from the UK and EU trade talks has ebbed and flowed over recent days and weeks. At one point the prospects of a deal looked dead in the water, while talks were abandoned on more than one occasion. Indeed, the UK went as far as to ramp up its preparations for a no deal Brexit. This included telling supermarkets to stockpile ahead of anticipated disruption to the food supply chain.
The UK may be in tiers now, but vaccine hopes have been a booster jab to the economy, so the future may look brighter. But, there is one big hurdle before the end of the year, and that is what is happening with the Brexit deal? Europe is still reeling from Poland & Hungary abstaining from the Covid relief fund, and the US is tentatively waiting for its new administration.
Despite who is elected, the US dollar may weaken regardless of who runs the country. The Secret Economist explains why in our US election special, as well as covering how the UK economy may, or may not, recover from another lockdown, plus Europe's deflationary pressures.
Can Trump win again, are Brexit trade negotiations actually going anywhere and will the UK be facing a winter lockdown?