USD

Over April, the U.S dollar index has depreciated around 3% against a basket of major currencies. The dovish policy stance appears to be the main driver for the bearish dollar view at present and the reason that led the USD to currently trade at its lowest level since February. The theme of the week will be the state of the U.S. recovery with a number of monthly growth metrics capturing the economic reopening as Covid-19 cases fade out, including ISM and Markit PMI surveys on Monday. Other strong labor market metrics at the end of the week will be also the main focus. On the geopolitics front, U.S and China and U.S and Russia relations remain the main areas of focus in the week ahead. Market participants will also keep an eye on Taiwan-China developments, as well as any chatter from Iran. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): Markit Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | FOMC Member Williams Speaks | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• On Tuesday (05/04): Trade Balance (Mar) | Redbook | ISM NY Business Conditions (Apr) | Factory Orders (Mar) | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
• On Wednesday (05/05):  ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr) | Markit Services PMI (Apr) | Crude Oil Inventories
• On Thursday (05/06): Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly)
• On Friday (05/07):   Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr) | Unemployment Rate (Apr) | Consumer Credit (Mar)

EUR

As expected, the eurozone's economy has fallen back into recession as the impact of the pandemic continues to hit activity. The bloc shrank by 0.6% in Q1, thus registering its second consecutive contraction, a so-called double-dip recession, since the pandemic outbreak. Looking ahead, final manufacturing PMI readings are due from Monday through Wednesday, while German retail sales are expected to show an acceleration during March. Later in the week, German economic activity metrics will be in focus, including March’s factory orders on Thursday, and trade balance, current account, as well as industrial production which are due on Friday. The EUR might be sensitive to the figures after the poor growth performance in Q1. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): German Retail Sales (Mar) | EZ Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• On Wednesday (05/05):  Producer Price Index (Mar) | EZ Services PMI (Apr)
• On Thursday (05/06): German Factory Orders (Mar) | ECB Economic Bulletin | Retail Sales (Mar)
• On Friday (05/07): German Trade Balance (Mar) | German Current Account (Mar) | German Industrial Production (Mar)

GBP

The Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be in focus this week. The meeting on Thursday will be closely watched after the Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first to rein in monetary stimulus amid signs of solid economic recovery and higher prices. On that note, the key is whether the BOE will join the BoC in reducing purchases of bonds (gilts). Apart from this, it is a relatively quiet week ahead regarding the economic calendar. Finalized Manufacturing and Services PMI surveys will be in focus, although it is not expected that the report brings greater revisions that could provide the GBP with direction. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): Bank Holiday
• On Tuesday (05/04):  BoE Consumer Credit (Mar) | Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• On Thursday (05/06): Services PMI (Apr) | BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) | BoE QE Total (May)
• On Friday (05/07): Construction PMI (Apr)

JPY

In Japan, although a bearish USD sentiment remains, the Japanese yen is still bucking the trend. Last week, the JPY slid 1.3% against the greenback, extending losses as the recovery of U.S. government bond yields takes shape. This week is rather quiet, with the Japanese markets closed from Monday through Wednesday. Finalized private sector PMIs for April will drive some attention, although any marked revisions are expected. Meanwhile, concerns around armed and diplomatic conflicts across the world might lead investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, such as the JPY. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): Holiday – Constitution Day | Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | Fiscal Balance (Mar)
• On Tuesday (05/04): Holiday - Greenery Day
• On Wednesday (05/05): Holiday - Japan - Children's Day | Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes | Services PMI (Apr)
• On Thursday (05/06): Services PMI (Apr)
• On Friday (05/07): Consumer Price Index (Apr) | Household Spending (Mar)

CAD

The Loonie continued to climb higher throughout April on the back of buoyant oil prices and evidence of a consumer-led recovery in the country amid the Bank of Canada’s hawkish tone. The upcoming week kicks off with finalized Manufacturing PMI on Monday, unless it brings any revision, it should have a muted impact on the Loonie. On Tuesday, trade data for March will drive attention ahead of April employment and Ivey PMI figures on Friday. Employment data for April will begin to reveal the extent of economic damage inflicted by the third wave of the virus in the country. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• On Tuesday (05/04): Building Permits (Mar) | Trade Balance (Mar)
• On Friday (05/07): Employment Change (Apr) | Ivey PMI (Apr)

MXN

Having recouped most of its losses against the greenback this year due to higher oil prices among other positive fundamentals, disappointing economic data poured cold water on the Mexican peso’s performance last week. Mexico's economy grew 0.4% in Q1 compared to the previous three-month period. The modest rise in Mexico’s GDP largely reflects the economy’s poor performance amid a tightening of virus-related restrictions and power outages that hit the industrial sector early this year. Looking ahead, Mexico will update its April’s Manufacturing PMI on Monday that may confirm the result above. March’s Inflation report arrives on Friday, along with the Consumer Confidence survey. Inflation figures will be scrutinized because higher prices with slow economic growth amid surging new virus cases is a dangerous combination. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): Manufacturing PMI (Apr) | Fiscal Balance (Mar)
• On Friday (05/07): Consumer Price Index (Mar) | Consumer Confidence (May)

CNY

The Chinese yuan ended April with solid gains (+1.4%) relative to the end of March against the greenback, recovering almost all the territory lost earlier this year. It is tough to lay out all the fundamentals behind this upward movement, but the increase in capital inflows, as foreign investors hunted for higher yield, certainly proved to be favorable to the CNY. The divergence in economic performance between China and almost every other country in the world is also one of the reasons driving yuan strength. It is a shortened week ahead, with a huge wave of Chinese tourists hitting the road for the Labor Day break (from Monday to Wednesday). The holiday will be the country's first long break in largely virus-free conditions and will unleash months of pent-up longing for travel. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing and Services PMIs will provide an update on China’s economic recovery, as will April trade balance numbers. Furthermore, the growing tensions between China and America over the future of Taiwan might weigh heavily on the CNY rate. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): Holiday - Labor Day | Manufacturing PMI (Apr)
• On Tuesday (05/04): Holiday - Labor Day   
• On Wednesday (05/05):  Holiday - Labor Day | Services PMI (Apr) | Composite PMI (Apr)
• On Thursday (05/06): Trade Balance (Apr) | FX Reserves (USD) (Apr)

BRL

The Brazilian real remains one of the worst-performing currencies in the world since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, despite seeing a strong recovery (+5.21%) throughout April. Nonetheless, the economy continues on a positive trajectory amid a worsening pandemic situation. Last week, the Treasury announced that the federal public debt is below the target, with the lowest average cost since 2005, at 7.64% a year. The balance of jobs created in March was 184,000. This week, the political scene could see a bump of positivity as House Speaker Arthur Lira presents the tax reform report on 3 May, which aims to simplify the tax system and improve the business environment. On Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to raise the basic interest rate by 0.75 basis points in order to curb higher inflation. In general, the upcoming week will bring positive developments that might help the BRL strengthen. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (05/03): IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (Apr) | BCB Focus Market Readout | Trade Balance (Apr) | Manufacturing PMI (Apr)  
• On Tuesday (05/04): Producer Price Index (Mar)
• On Wednesday (05/05): Industrial Production (Mar) | Services PMI (Apr) | Interest Rate Decision
• On Friday (05/07): IGP-DI Inflation Index (Apr) | Retail Sales (Mar)