USD

The first week of 2021 kicks off with the revisions to December’s flash PMI figures on Monday, along with Fed President Evans speaking at Economic Prospects and Policies After Covid-19’s Panel. The first major U.S data of this week will be the Non-farm payroll numbers on Friday, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. On the politics front, the run-off elections in Georgia on Tuesday will determine which party wins control of the Senate and influence President-elect Joe Biden’s decisions. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks | Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 
• On Tuesday (01/05): ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | New Vehicle Sales (Dec)
• On Wednesday (01/06): ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | Markit Composite PMI (Dec) | Factory Orders (Nov) | Minutes of Dec 16th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting
• On Thursday (01/07): Initial Jobless Claims | Trade Balance (Nov)
• On Friday (01/08): Government Payrolls (Dec) | Unemployment Rate (Dec)

EUR

The week starts with December manufacturing PMI figures for Spain, Germany, Italy, and France. On Tuesday, the attention shifts to retail sales and unemployment figures from Germany, where investors will look for clues about the strength of economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. As consumers around the European Union adjust to the next normal after the bloc kicked off its Covid-19 vaccination campaign on December 27, there is a significant variance in consumer sentiment and behaviors across countries. The December Business and Consumer Survey is due out on Thursday. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Manufacturing PMI (Dec)       
• On Tuesday (01/05): Germany - Retails Sales (Nov) | Germany - Unemployment figures (Dec)
• On Wednesday (01/06): Markit Composite PMI (Dec) | Services PMI (Dec)
• On Thursday (01/07): Business and Consumer Survey (Dec) | Consumer Price Index (Prelim) (Dec) | Retail Sales (Nov)
• On Friday (01/08): Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Nov)

GBP

With the United Kingdom leaving the EU and questions remaining over the deal's details, a new regulatory border and a new political reality will keep influencing the Pound. Besides, Covid-19 updates after Christmas on Britain’s first week away from the EU will remain on the radar. PMI numbers will draw the market attention amid a week of a light economic calendar with Finalized Composite and Construction PMIs for December to have the greatest influence. Other releases including Shop Price Index, December house price, as well as labor productivity figures in Q3 are expected to have a muted impact on the GBP. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• On Tuesday (01/05): BRC Shop Price Index (Dec)
• On Wednesday (01/06): Composite PMI (Dec)
• On Thursday (01/07): Construction PMI (Dec)
• On Friday (01/08): Halifax House Price Index (Dec) | Labor Productivity (Q3)

JPY

The final manufacturing PMI for December will be reported on Monday and will be a key data to assess Japan’s economic recovery as Japan’s industrial output growth thwarted in November. Final services and composite PMI readings will be reported on Tuesday. Household Confidence, along with Household spending will draw interest as the Bank of Japan remains a further fiscal stimulus in the pipeline. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Manufacturing PMI (Dec)             
• On Tuesday (01/05): Services PMI (Dec) | Composite PMI (Dec) | 10-Year JGB Auction
• On Wednesday (01/06): Household Confidence (Dec)   
• On Thursday (01/07): Household Spending (Nov)
• On Friday (01/08): Coincident Indicator (Nov) 

CAD

Loonie traders kick off the week closely watching the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies’ virtual meeting on Monday. In the last OPEC+ meeting in December, alliance members held back from plans to boost output by two million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. There are rumors that Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early. The meeting’s developments and its impact on crude oil prices would also provide the Loonie with direction. Domestically, November’s Raw Materials Price Index is in focus on Tuesday ahead of trade data and December’s Ivey PMI on Thursday. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• On Tuesday (01/05): Raw Materials Price Index (Nov)
• On Wednesday (01/06): Exports and Imports (Nov)  
• On Thursday (01/07): Ivey PMI (Dec)
• On Friday (01/08): Employment Change (Dec)

MXN

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Saturday (2) that Mexico had lost 277,000 jobs in December, which has confirmed that the rebound in the economy and employment continues to show different nuances and heterogeneity among sectors and regions. On Thursday, inflation figures will draw interest as it is expected at 3.15% year-on-year vs. 3.33% in November, in which the data would move closer to the center of the 2-4% target range. The inflation figures will be an important building-block of the Central Bank’s next policy meeting’s decision on February 11. With inflation falling and the MXN firming against the USD, Banco Central could resume its easing period at the next meeting. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• On Thursday (01/07): Consumer Price Index (Dec) | Central Bank minutes (Dec, 17)
• On Friday (01/08): Consumer Confidence

CNY

Consensus among market players, China will lead the global recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. This greater optimism has led some institutions to forecast that the Chinese yuan could appreciate a further 3% to 5% in 2021. It is a relatively quiet week on the data front. December manufacturing and services PMI figures are due out on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Both numbers should confirm the strong economic recovery through the end of 2020 and provide a clue about how China will start in 2021. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• On Wednesday (01/06): Caixin Services PMI (Dec)
• On Thursday (01/07): FX Reserves (USD)

BRL

Apart from a few harsh remarks from President Bolsonaro and his behavior towards Covid-19, 2021 has begun with no political rift. From an economic perspective, the scenario is positive. There are no signals of extension of emergency aids or increasing in social programs, which means that the spending ceiling was preserved. Industrial production on Friday will be the major figure over this week and is expected to rise by 3.3% against 0.3% reported in October. The economy continues to recover even as price pressures pick up. Key figures coming up:

• On Monday (01/04): Markit Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
• On Tuesday (01/05): Produce Price Index (Nov)
• On Wednesday (01/06): Markit Composite PMI (Dec)
• On Thursday (01/07): IPC-Fipe Inflation Index (Dec)
• On Friday (01/08): Industrial Production (Nov)